If we look at yesterday's NFP data, where the number is very low indicating a weakening in the labor market, and the PCE inflation data which has increased, then the possibility is that even though the GDP number rose from 3.0% to 3.1% yesterday, this is not a good thing.

The value of consumer spending increased not because of high demand, because it is clear that people are having difficulty finding jobs, but the increase in consumption is an effect of rising prices of goods & services due to tariffs.

What is the impact for the market? Nothing will change, at Jackson Hole yesterday Powell already expressed that there will be a shift in focus to the risks in the labor market which is indeed experiencing a downturn, thus giving a clue to cuts.

This represents a strong bullish sentiment, and I mostly agree because the inflation effect due to tariffs is likely only temporary/a one-time increase at the time tariffs are imposed.

The weakening labor market poses a more serious risk because if left unchecked it risks stagflation where prices of goods rise amidst a weakening purchasing power in society.

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