Post
橙子研究院
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Bullish【Trend Research Liquidation of ETH, the focus is actually not on how much money was lost, but on why it was lost】
On February 8, on-chain data showed that Trend Research, under Yi Li Hua, transferred the last approximately 534 ETH to Binance, basically completing the liquidation; in the last hour, a total of about 31,000 ETH (approximately 65 million USD) was transferred in.
This round of operations was roughly: approximately 3,104 USD for 658,000 ETH → approximately 2,058 USD for liquidation → total loss of approximately 688 million USD.
Many newcomers see it as “institutional failure.”
But as an old player who has been around since 2017, I understand better: this is not simply a directional error, but a mismatch of cycle + leverage + time.
The long-term logic of ETH has not disappeared; the problem lies in —
using short-term funds, even with leverage, to hold long-cycle assets. When the market enters a deleveraging phase, it doesn’t require you to judge incorrectly; as long as you can’t hold on, you must exit.
Many people focus on the liquidation price, thinking that hitting there is the bottom. In fact, the opposite is true:
the exit of large players is often a process of a bear market, not the end of a bear market.
The market keeps repeating:
bull markets kill retail investors, bear markets kill institutions.
The only three points of enlightenment for ordinary people are:
1) Long-term assets should not be matched with short-term funds
2) Spot has cycles, leverage does not have cycles
3) The biggest risk in the market has never been misjudgment, but rather not being able to wait until being right.
#易理华旗下TrendResearch减仓 $ETH
{future}(ETHUSDT)
#BTC $BTC
{future}(BTCUSDT)
On February 8, on-chain data showed that Trend Research, under Yi Li Hua, transferred the last approximately 534 ETH to Binance, basically completing the liquidation; in the last hour, a total of about 31,000 ETH (approximately 65 million USD) was transferred in.
This round of operations was roughly: approximately 3,104 USD for 658,000 ETH → approximately 2,058 USD for liquidation → total loss of approximately 688 million USD.
Many newcomers see it as “institutional failure.”
But as an old player who has been around since 2017, I understand better: this is not simply a directional error, but a mismatch of cycle + leverage + time.
The long-term logic of ETH has not disappeared; the problem lies in —
using short-term funds, even with leverage, to hold long-cycle assets. When the market enters a deleveraging phase, it doesn’t require you to judge incorrectly; as long as you can’t hold on, you must exit.
Many people focus on the liquidation price, thinking that hitting there is the bottom. In fact, the opposite is true:
the exit of large players is often a process of a bear market, not the end of a bear market.
The market keeps repeating:
bull markets kill retail investors, bear markets kill institutions.
The only three points of enlightenment for ordinary people are:
1) Long-term assets should not be matched with short-term funds
2) Spot has cycles, leverage does not have cycles
3) The biggest risk in the market has never been misjudgment, but rather not being able to wait until being right.
#易理华旗下TrendResearch减仓 $ETH
{future}(ETHUSDT)
#BTC $BTC
{future}(BTCUSDT)
Disclaimer: Includes third-party opinions. No financial advice. May include sponsored content. See T&Cs.