💰 Price: $2,101.56

📊 CURRENT SITUATION:

Fresh bounce from extreme oversold zones (12H BW -56, Daily -67) — just crossed zero on 15M and 1H

  • 15M BrainWaves: +15 RISING (just crossed zero)

  • 30M BrainWaves: -15 RISING (recovering)

  • 1H BrainWaves: +22 RISING CONTRACTING

  • 4H BrainWaves: +11 RISING

Multiple bullish breakouts:

  • D-VWAP BO, W-VWAP BO, Middle Line BO, EMA200 BO (all CURRENT/recent)

  • "Three White Soldiers" on Daily (CURRENT)

  • BrainWaves crossed zero on 15M (CURRENT)

⚠️ MACRO CONTEXT — WHY STILL CAUTIOUS:

  • Weekly: BW -52 FALLING, exhaustion 80%, delta -155 FALLING

  • Daily: BW -67 (extreme oversold but trend still down)

  • Monthly: BW +2 FALLING, momentum declining

  • 12H: Bearish Market Manipulation (5 bars ago)

🎯 LIQUIDATION ZONES:

ABOVE (magnets):

  • $2,100-$2,110 — 48H yellow zone (VERY STRONG) — $0-$9 away ⭐

  • $2,115-$2,125 — 24H green/yellow (STRONG) — $14-$24 away

  • $2,120-$2,135 — 48H green/yellow (STRONG) — $19-$34 away

  • $2,140-$2,150 — 12H green/yellow — $39-$49 away

BELOW (targets):

  • $2,075-$2,085 — 48H green/yellow (STRONG) — $17-$27 below

  • $2,000-$2,020 — 3D/1W green/yellow (STRONG) — $82-$102 below ⭐

  • $1,900-$1,920 — 3D yellow zone (VERY STRONG) — $182-$202 below

💡 CRITICAL DIFFERENCE FROM BTC:

ETH is NOT overbought yet — still has room to push higher before hitting warning zones.

Why ETH different:
✅ BrainWaves 15M only +15 (vs BTC +68 overbought)
✅ BrainWaves 1H only +22 (vs BTC exhaustion signals)
✅ Exhaustion 70% on 15M (high but not extreme like BTC)
✅ Fresh breakouts (D-VWAP, W-VWAP, Middle Line all CURRENT)
✅ "Three White Soldiers" forming on Daily

📈 TWO SCENARIOS — NEXT 24-48H:

SCENARIO 1: Push to $2,120-$2,135 Liquidation Zone (60% probability) — MORE LIKELY

Price continues bounce to sweep $2,115-$2,135 liquidation clusters before potential rejection.

Why more likely:
✅ NOT yet overbought (15M +15, 1H +22)
✅ Fresh bullish breakouts (D-VWAP, W-VWAP, Middle Line)
✅ Daily "Three White Soldiers" forming
✅ Lower TF exhaustion 19-70% (room to extend)
✅ Strong liquidation magnets above ($2,100-$2,135)
✅ Delta accumulating on 4H, 12H, Daily

Targets before rejection:
→ $2,105 (UPPER)
→ $2,112 (Fib 1.0)
→ $2,120-$2,135 (liquidation sweep zone)

SCENARIO 2: Immediate Rejection from Current Area (40% probability)

Price rejected from $2,101-$2,105 (UPPER resistance) without reaching liquidation zones above.

Why possible:
⚠️ Weekly BEARISH FALLING (BW -52, exhaustion 80%)
⚠️ Daily still BEAR trend (BW -67)
⚠️ Monthly momentum declining
⚠️ 12H Bearish Market Manipulation (5 bars ago)
⚠️ Delta distributing on 15M, 30M, 1H (short-term weakness)

Targets:
→ $2,077 (Cluster: LOWER + W-VWAP + EMA50)
→ $2,000-$2,020 (strong liquidation cluster)
→ $1,992 (PDL)

💰 TRADING PLAN:

1️⃣ LONG Continuation (Decent Risk — 60% confidence)
Entry$2,101-$2,105 (current area)Stop Loss$2,068 (below Fib 0.618)TP1$2,112 (Fib 1.0) — R:R 0.3:1TP2$2,120 (liquidation cluster) — R:R 0.5:1TP3$2,135 (upper liquidation zone) — R:R 1.0:1

✅ Why this works:

  • NOT overbought yet (unlike BTC)

  • Fresh breakouts active

  • Liquidation magnets above

  • Delta accumulating on higher TFs

⚠️ Risk: R:R marginal on TP1/TP2, better on TP3. Must trail stop aggressively.

Confirmation:

  • Volume continues elevated (>300%)

  • BrainWaves continues rising on 15M/1H

  • No immediate bearish engulfing

2️⃣ SHORT from Liquidation Sweep (Best Setup — 60% confidence)
Entry$2,115-$2,125 (liquidation sweep zone)Stop Loss$2,145 (above liquidation cluster)TP1$2,077 (Cluster: LOWER + W-VWAP + EMA50) — R:R 1.7:1TP2$2,000 (liquidation cluster below) — R:R 4.8:1TP3$1,992 (PDL) — R:R 5.2:1

✅ Confirmation for SHORT:

  • Volume spike at $2,115-$2,125

  • Bearish engulfing on 15M/30M

  • BrainWaves starts FALLING

  • Delta goes more negative

  • RSI divergence

⚠️ Remember: All higher TFs (1D, 1W, 1M) still BEARISH. Bounce = relief, not reversal.

3️⃣ Wait for Clarity (SAFEST)

Wait for one of two things:

  1. Sweep $2,115-$2,125 + rejection confirmation → SHORT

  2. Breakout above $2,135 with volume → reassess (invalidates bearish short-term)

🔑 KEY LEVELS FOR NEXT 24-48H:

RESISTANCE:

  • $2,105 (UPPER) — $4 above ⭐

  • $2,112 (Fib 1.0) — $11 above

  • $2,115-$2,125 (liquidation zone) — $14-$24 above ⭐

  • $2,120-$2,135 (liquidation zone) — $19-$34 above

  • $2,268 (PWC) — $167 above

SUPPORT:

  • $2,077 (Cluster: LOWER + W-VWAP + EMA50) — $25 below ⭐

  • $2,069 (Fib 0.618) — $33 below

  • $2,058 (EMA200) — $44 below

  • $2,000-$2,020 (liquidation cluster) — $82-$102 below ⭐

  • $1,992 (PDL) — $110 below

⚖️ BOTTOM LINE:

BEARISH macro, but short-term bounce has MORE room than BTC.

ETH NOT yet overbought (15M +15, 1H +22) unlike BTC (15M +68 overbought). Fresh breakouts active: D-VWAP, W-VWAP, Middle Line, "Three White Soldiers" on Daily.

TWO OUTCOMES:

  • 60%: Push to $2,115-$2,135 liquidation sweep → SHORT rejection

  • 40%: Immediate rejection from here → DROP to $2,077 → $2,000

All higher TFs (Daily, Weekly, Monthly) remain BEARISH. Weekly exhaustion 80% (sellers tired, but trend still down).

BEST PLAY:

Option A: LONG current area → take profit $2,120-$2,135 (don't overstay)

Option B: Wait for $2,115-$2,125 sweep + rejection → SHORT toward liquidation clusters below ($2,077, $2,000)

SITUATION CHANGES IF: Close above $2,145 with volume → invalidates bearish short-term thesis.

📌 ETH has more room to bounce than BTC — but it's still a relief bounce within macro bearish structure, NOT a reversal.

#Ethereum #ETH #CryptoAnalysis #Trading #TechnicalAnalysis #Liquidation