One year ago, in 2024, Bitcoin spent an entire year moving inside a box between 58k and 74k. At that time, I repeatedly explained that this box had three main purposes. The most important one was the drawing of future reference lines for the next bear market. I said many times that the 2024 box would play a key role again during the 2026 bear market, in the same price areas. That is exactly what is happening now. Bitcoin is currently trading in a zone where it previously consolidated for an entire year before breaking higher toward 100k. In a bear market context, this same zone is not support, it is structure, and structure eventually breaks. Once the sideways phase is complete, I expect a breakdown below the box.
Current Plan and Range Logic
I am expecting a large sideways movement between 57k and 87k. My clear intention is to buy between 57k and 60k, which is the bottom of the current box. It is critical to understand that the bottom of the box does not mean the final bottom for Bitcoin. It means the bottom of the current phase. I buy 57k–60k for percentage gains, not for the long term plan as I usually do. As an example, Bitcoin is already up roughly 16% from the 60k buy entry I shared a few days ago.
Does this mean 87k is a guaranteed target? No. It means two simple things. First, Bitcoin between 57k and 60k is in a recovery and bounce phase, which usually includes sideways action. Second, the highest level I expect Bitcoin could reach during this phase is around 87k, depending on the strength and duration of the sideways market. If the market allows a visit to the 87k area, I am open to adding more to my existing shorts that were opened between 115k and 125k and are still fully held.
Positioning and Execution
Some people like to complicate things. From my perspective, it is very simple. I am holding shorts from 115k–125k. At the same time, I placed multiple spot buy orders between 57k and 60k. Some of these orders were triggered around 60k and are already up around 16%. I plan to hold these gains because I expect continued sideways action and no immediate further downside in the coming weeks. I consider 57k–60k the local bottom, not the macro bottom, and I expect this area to be tested multiple times. That is exactly why buying there makes sense to me. There is no reason to sell while upside potential remains. When the moment to sell comes, I will metion once I sold or planning to sell. Bitcoin will move sideways until it no longer does. The largest and most aggressive long-term bets will be placed much lower, between the 50k level and into the low 40s. That is where I will re-enter with serious size for the next cycle, while taking profits from the 115k–125k short, and thats the area I believe Bitcoin will be finally bottomed out. This area is expected to be hit in September-October as my calculations show, in the meantime? A long and boring sideway as mentioned above.
Why I am Buying Now in a Bear Market
Some ask why I am buying now if I expect Bitcoin to eventually bottom around 54k–44k. The answer is simple: markets do not move in straight lines. Even in bear markets, there are powerful counter-trend rallies. In 2022, Bitcoin dropped from 68k to 33k almost without pause. Then, within two months, it rallied from 33k to 48.5k, a 50% move, before continuing down to the final bottom at 16k. This is how markets work.
We are in a bear market. The bounces are temporary and exist to build liquidity for further downside. My ultimate bear market target remains below 50k, in the 40s area. That is where my largest positions will be built. Until then, my short from 115k–125k remains fully open. I am not longing with leverage. I am buying spot between 57k and 60k while keeping the short open.
THIS IS NO FINANCIAL ADVICE AND EDUCATIONAL CONTENT ONLY
