Is BTC in a bear market? That is definitely the case.
Those who called for a slow bull market last year and a super cycle at the beginning of this year have gone quiet, while I, Feige, have consistently emphasized the four-year cycle. Currently, this viewpoint still holds true. Looking around the square, apart from a very few individual KOLs still observing the super cycle and explosive counterfeit seasons, the vast majority have already recognized the reality.
About the bull-bear line. Regardless of any technical indicators, we are currently fully entering a bear market. The pattern has deteriorated early, the monthly MA20 has also broken, and various daily moving averages have long been broken. The Tang Anqi channel has broken below the lowest price of 520,000 (the volume is truly immense). If you think this kind of candlestick still indicates a bull market, then your brain must be faulty.
Having discussed the overall environment, let's take a look at the short-term market. BTC rebounded from 60000 to around 72000, then corrected to around 70000 and started consolidating. Many people feel that the rebound is over and that there is no hope for the market, but is it really like that?
Let's review the previous BTC rebound from around 80000 to around 98000. At that time, I emphasized that BTC had a trend decline to 80000, then rebounded to around 92000, retraced to around 90000, and kept consolidating back and forth. Finally, it retraced to around 84000 before rising again to the 90000 level. It consolidated for a while at this position before rebounding to our target of 98000. This process is quite time-consuming and exhausting.
Now, looking back at our current rebound, BTC rebounded from 60000 to around 72000, and a retracement to around 70000 for consolidation is very normal. There’s no need to worry too much. If the market falls below 69000, you can consider a short position for a short term, targeting 67000 and 65000. When it reaches this position, be sure to take profits on the short position, then reverse and go long to see around 70000. The main players will create this rebound weakness to lure retail investors into shorting, and then rebound to harvest, because once it falls below 67000, many retail investors will look at 50000.
If you think about it differently, in the short term, whether it's BTC or altcoins, they have already dropped too much, and the bear market has only passed one-third. If it keeps dropping like this, wouldn't BTC have to drop to 10000? That seems unrealistic. Moreover, during the bear market, many people actually don't lose much money despite the continuous downward trend. It's the violent rebounds that create this different illusion for retail investors, allowing for more harvesting. So during this period, for our operations, unless there’s a breakout, we mainly focus on going long on pullbacks. The short-term BTC range is 65000 to 75000 for low longs and high shorts.
There isn't much analysis for ETH and SOL; the short-term market is highly correlated with BTC. Just refer directly to BTC's movements. Those who understand a bit of technical analysis can pull up the Fibonacci lines, and they will basically see the key levels.
Having discussed our mainstream coins, let's take a look at the altcoins. Currently, the hottest altcoin in the market is HYPE. Many people ask if they can chase this position. My advice is not to. HYPE has already rebounded close to doubling from the bottom. At this position, there may still be some upward space, but I think the cost-effectiveness is not high. To be honest, outside of HYPE, I don't want to look at other altcoins in this track, and I don't think much of Aster either. However, in the same track, with a low market cap, if HYPE goes up, then Aster and AVNT should also rise.
Now, let's take a look at the trends of our gold and silver.
I emphasized to everyone before that after the sharp drop in gold and silver, it will take at least a month to see a market trend. During this period, it's mainly about consolidation and recovery. I mentioned before that gold might rebound in the next few days, but it won't reach a new high. It's also possible that the market will hype up the situation in Iran again, causing a sharp increase in gold prices in the short term.
However, it's still very difficult to create a new high. There will be a lot of short positions lurking around the new high. The short-term resistance level for gold is around 5100 to 5200, and it can't look higher or reach a new high in the short term.
Silver is the same; after a violent rebound from the bottom, first look at the resistance level of the 85 to 88 range.
I also have long positions at the bottom, and at this resistance level, I will consider taking profits.
After the sharp drop in gold and silver, time is needed to repair the market. Keep patience and wait for the new market to arrive.
These are the short-term market analyses. The market trend is in constant cycles. Set an alarm, invest in Bitcoin during the bear market, hold for 3 years, and then just wait to count the money. Making money is that simple; it's just that most people are unwilling to believe it.
The cryptocurrency market is in a bear market, and there are still 241 days until this round of Bitcoin's bear market ends.
I hope you can get through this difficult bear market with me, and when the next bull market arrives, I hope we are both there.
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