"Obligations to investors"
By Monday, February 9, $BTC it has somewhat recovered after last week's drop to $60 thousand. The collapse to $60 thousand was unusual in that it lasted several days and was "prolonged", without a large number of liquidations. The decline was methodical, systemic, and occurred in the absence of sharply negative news, noted the analyst.
The causes of the crash are attributed to the actions of American investment banks. This theory states that large sales were led by giants of the financial market, who had previously invested in structured cryptocurrency products such as Bitcoin ETFs or Michael Saylor's Bitcoin treasury stock. Those products imply investments in cryptocurrency without requiring direct purchase.
Such tools set a parameter for "maximum risk", where the maximum possible loss on the strategy is clearly fixed. For example, if losses reach 25% of the investment, the position is automatically closed.
"Stops" for such products were around the price $BTC approximately at $78.7 thousand. When the rate fell to this figure, a decline began without rebounds, on the night of February 4-5.
Investment bankers simply hedged this loss. They have obligations to the investor to lock in the loss so that the person does not lose more money. They must sell a certain amount of Bitcoin or Bitcoin products for an equivalent amount. This happens automatically, and investment banks do not think at that moment about how much Bitcoin costs and where it will go next.
And it was exactly this large cascading fall that happened — the movement went down, reaching new "stops" for structured crypto products, after which it fell even deeper.
"Institutionals are thinking twice"
Until recently, there were no institutional investors in Bitcoin; crypto enthusiasts with a HODL strategy were simply waiting out drawdowns, which sometimes reached 80%. Now, phenomena such as institutional "stops" and forced sell-offs have appeared in the market. Given that institutional investors are now "thinking twice", the question arises of where demand will come from, the expert argues.
In the crypto industry, negative moments are accumulating: miners are operating at a loss, Michael Saylor is "underwater", investors have just been "burned" on structured products, early holders of cryptocurrencies continue to sell coins, locking in profits, while Bitcoin developers appear in Epstein's files.
It is highly unlikely that we will see any V-shaped reversal now. There are no buyers who are systematically purchasing.
In the range of $65-80 thousand $BTC may last 3-4 months or even longer. Probably, the asset will "become interesting" when a new head of the Federal Reserve System of the USA comes and starts lowering the rate. At the same time, he does not rule out that the wait for growth may drag on due to a decrease in institutional interest.
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