The market is still in a defensive state. Whether the recovery of $BTC will continue depends on whether spot demand recovers. The current difficulties in the market show a similar pattern to the market structure observed at the beginning of May 2022.
Below are the "chilling" similarities between the market structure of May 2022 and February 2026:
1. Breaking the 1-year moving average (MA365)
May 2022: Bitcoin closed the weekly candle below MA365 for the first time, confirming the onset of a prolonged 'crypto winter'.
February 2026: Once again, after nearly 4 years, the Bitcoin price has officially broken through the MA365 line. According to data from CryptoQuant, the 23% drop in just 83 days since losing this mark is worse than the early 2022 period.
2. The 'loss-making' UTXO ratio returns to the danger zone
The current realized net profit/loss indicator shows that the ratio of wallets experiencing losses has returned to the level of 27–30%.
This is the psychological threshold where, in May 2022, individual investors began to 'capitulate' and panic sell regardless of the price, creating a free fall.
3. The difference in 'the leader' but the same outcome
Year 2022: The collapse came from an algorithm (UST/LUNA) and centralized lending funds.
Year 2026: The current 'leader' is the spot Bitcoin ETF funds. In January 2026, these funds experienced an outflow of over 3 billion USD. When large institutions stopped buying and switched to net selling, the market lost the most important support of this cycle.
4. Fear & Greed Index
This index is currently hitting 11 (extreme fear). The last time we saw such a low level was after the bankruptcy of the FTX exchange (November 2022) and the panic phase in May 2022.