Hedera remains under pressure after a continuous decline, causing HBAR to be stuck in a downward trend for one month. The price is facing difficulties in attracting significant demand, which has made recovery efforts sluggish.
The breakout of this structure needs stronger support from investors, which currently remains limited. Therefore, this lack of confidence opens up opportunities for derivative market traders to strategize with caution.
HBAR traders are facing danger.
The positioning of futures reflects a clear downside. The liquidation map indicates that short contracts are at greater risk than long ones at critical price levels. This imbalance reflects traders' expectations that HBAR may continue to be pressured downwards before a sustainable recovery trend emerges.
However, this situation may lead to a squeeze if HBAR can break out of this downward trend and rise close to the resistance at 0.1035 USD, there will be a short position of almost 5 million USD that may be liquidated. That event could force bearish traders to close their positions, resulting in a sudden buying pressure and changing the short-term atmosphere.
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The on-chain momentum signals reflect a mixed signal. The Chaikin Money Flow index signals bullish divergence compared to the price making a new low earlier this week. Although the price continues to decline, the CMF value has risen, indicating that selling pressure is easing rather than intensifying.
Nevertheless, the signal has yet to be confirmed as the CMF value has not surpassed the zero line, which would indicate that inflows of capital are beginning to have more influence than outflows. Meanwhile, capital continues to flow out of HBAR, although it has slightly slowed down. Therefore, as long as this trend remains unchanged, the upward signal is still considered quite uncertain.
HBAR is trading close to the level of USD0.0903 as this article is being written. The price movement at this level has not been able to instill confidence in investors, as weak participation continues to limit capital inflows and reinforces bearish sentiment among futures traders who see no sufficient reason to close positions early.
The short-term trend thus depends on whether HBAR can break out of this downward cycle. Holding above the support at USD0.0901 will immediately reduce downside risk, and if inflows of capital begin to improve alongside the stability of HBAR's price, there may be an opportunity to rise towards the resistance at USD0.1030. Reaching that level would create pressure on short positions and may lead to automatic position closures.
There is still a clear downside risk if the overall conditions worsen. Breaking below the support at USD0.0901 will cause HBAR to face even greater losses. If so, the price could drop to USD0.0830, and if weakness continues, it may lead to a drop to USD0.0751, which would completely negate the bullish concept and reinforce the continuation of the bearish trend overall.