Hedera has continued to be pressured after a long decline that has kept HBAR stuck in a month-long downward trend. The price has struggled to attract greater demand, which is why attempts to rise have been weak.
To break this structure requires stronger support from investors, but there is little support right now. A lack of conviction means that derivative traders are cautiously positioning themselves.
HBAR traders are in danger
Futures positioning shows clear confidence in a decline. The liquidation map indicates that short positions carry greater risk than long ones at key price levels. This imbalance reflects that traders believe HBAR may continue to go down before any stronger recovery occurs.
But the setting allows for a squeeze. If HBAR manages to break out of the downtrend and reaches resistance at 0.1035 USD, nearly 5 million USD in short positions may be forced to liquidate. This would force sellers to buy back HBAR, which can provide buying power and quickly change the sentiment in the short term.
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On-chain signals present a mixed picture. Chaikin Money Flow showed a positive divergence against lower price peaks earlier in the week. Even though the price continued to fall, CMF rose, indicating that selling pressure decreased rather than increased.
But this signal has not yet been confirmed. CMF has not crossed the zero line, which would show that inflows are stronger than outflows. Capital continues to leave HBAR, but at a slower pace. Until it turns clearly, the positive signal remains uncertain.
HBAR is trading near 0.0903 USD right now. The price development at this level has not instilled confidence in investors. Weak participation continues to hamper capital inflows, so futures-oriented traders are holding onto their positions.
The nearest development depends on whether HBAR manages to break the downtrend. If the price stays above support at 0.0901 USD, the risk of sharp declines decreases. If inflows increase while the price stabilizes, HBAR could reach resistance at 0.1030 USD. Such a rise would pressure short positions and may cause liquidations.
The downside risk is still significant if the situation worsens. A breakthrough below support at 0.0901 USD could expose HBAR to further losses. The price could fall towards 0.0830 USD. If weakness continues, the decline could extend to 0.0751 USD, which would completely refute the positive analysis and confirm a continued downtrend.