Today is marked by a severe correction in risk assets (a phenomenon known as "Trump Dump" in the crypto sector) and an escalation in global trade tensions. The initial euphoria following Trump's re-election in 2024 has dissipated, giving way to the reality of a "Trade War 2.0" and entrenched geopolitical tensions.
1. Key Geopolitical Conflicts with the U.S.
U.S. vs. China Trade War (Escalation):
Current Situation: The Trump administration has consolidated its aggressive tariff policy. Following the 2025 announcements of tariffs ranging from 10% to 60% on Chinese products, Beijing has responded with reciprocal measures ("retaliation") affecting U.S. agriculture and technology.
Effect: A forced decoupling is observed in key technology sectors (semiconductors and AI). Global supply chains are under extreme pressure, trying to move out of China to countries like Vietnam or India, although with logistical difficulties.
Tensions in North America (T-MEC Review):
U.S. vs. Mexico: The relationship is tense ahead of the imminent review of the T-MEC (USMCA) treaty. Trump has threatened punitive tariffs if Mexico does not completely curb the flow of migrants and the alleged "triangulation" of Chinese products (steel and electric cars) through its territory.
Impact: Risk of technical recession in Mexico due to foreign investment uncertainty.
War Conflicts (Ukraine and the Middle East):
Ukraine: Almost four years into the war, the conflict remains at a critical point. Trump's promise of a "quick end" has not materialized into stable peace; instead, there is a stalemate with pressures for Ukraine to cede territory, fracturing NATO unity.
Iran: Today's intelligence reports indicate that the risk of direct confrontation remains high. Nuclear negotiations are dead, and the U.S. has increased its naval presence in the Persian Gulf to deter Tehran, keeping oil volatile.
2. Impact on the Financial Ecosystem
Market sentiment today is Risk-Off (aversion to risk), which explains the sharp movements in the following assets:
A. The Crypto Ecosystem: From "Trump Bump" to "Trump Dump"
The cryptocurrency market is undergoing a significant correction today, February 10, 2026.
Bitcoin (BTC): Has lost the psychological support of 70,000 USD and is trading in ranges close to 58,000 - 65,000 USD (approximately 57,600 EUR).
Cause: Massive profit-taking after the 2025 rally and disappointment that the "pro-crypto" regulations promised by Trump have not progressed as quickly as expected, or have only benefited specific institutional players.
ETFs: There are net capital outflows in spot Bitcoin ETFs, indicating that institutional investors are rotating towards safer assets.
Stablecoins: There are rumors and controversies about stablecoin projects linked to the administration's environment, generating regulatory distrust.
B. Gold ("The Roro") and Precious Metals
In the wake of falling digital assets and trade uncertainty, gold regains its shine as the ultimate safe-haven asset.
Gold (XAU/USD): Trading higher, consolidating near historical highs. Central banks (especially from China and Russia) continue to accumulate physical reserves to reduce their dependence on the dollar.
Other Metals: Copper and Silver: Show volatility. Although they are necessary for the industry, fears of a global manufacturing slowdown (due to the trade war) limit their gains.
C. The U.S. dollar (DXY Index)
Mixed Behavior: The dollar shows weakness against gold but strength against emerging currencies (such as the Mexican Peso or the Yuan) due to tariffs.
Trend: There are long-term concerns about the sustainability of U.S. debt under Trump's expansive fiscal policy, which today puts pressure on the greenback against strong currencies like the Swiss Franc.
3. Other Affected Countries and Industries
Trump's protectionist decisions have clear "collateral damage":
Automotive Industry (Germany, Japan, Mexico): Hard hit by the threat of tariffs on vehicle imports. Shares of European and Asian manufacturers are under pressure today.
Technology and Semiconductors (Taiwan - TSMC): The pressure to manufacture "Made in USA" continues to affect supply chains. Export restrictions on chips to China are reducing revenues for major tech companies.
Agriculture (U.S. and Brazil): U.S. farmers are suffering from China's retaliation (which has stopped buying U.S. soybeans). This indirectly benefits Brazil, which becomes the main alternative supplier for Asia.
Europe (European Union): Caught between a rock and a hard place. The EU is trying to avoid a full-blown trade war with the U.S., but "America First" policies are draining industrial investment from the European bloc to the U.S.
Important Note: Today the narrative that "Trump is bullish on everything" has broken. The market is discriminating, punishing cryptocurrencies (for previous overbuying and lack of immediate real utility) and rewarding gold (due to geopolitical fears).
#Noticia #Geopolitica2026 #Bitcoin #Oro #EconomiaGlobal
