Dogecoin (DOGE) has long been associated with the image of "meme coin or beginning of the year pump" in both the Vietnamese and international crypto communities. Many traders often share sayings like: "At the beginning of the year, DOGE always rises strongly", "January is DOGE's golden month", and there is even seasonal data cited that on average, DOGE increases about 91.5% in January over more than 10 years of history. But is this true? And what is the actual probability?

This article will deeply analyze based on historical data from 2014 to early 2026 (up until February 2026), considering the influencing factors, and provide an objective conclusion. We will not rely on hype or sentiment but look directly at the data.

### 1. Origin of the belief "DOGE or rise at the beginning of the year"

This belief mainly originates from the year 2021 – the biggest boom year for DOGE:

- On 1/1/2021: DOGE opened around $0.0047–$0.005.

- By the end of January 2021: Shot up to more than $0.03–$0.08 (an increase of about 600–1,500% depending on the short time frame).

- Peak: In May 2021, it reached an ATH of $0.73.

This event is driven by:

- Elon Musk tweets continuously about DOGE.

- Reddit community (WallStreetBets, r/SatoshiStreetBets) organized a pump.

- The global crypto bull run after Bitcoin's 2020 halving.

Additionally, several other years had slight increases:

- 2023: January rose about 37% (from ~$0.07 to ~$0.10).

- 2024: A short pump at the beginning of the year thanks to ETF rumor news and listing.

Since then, many sources (like CryptoRank) have compiled seasonal data and provided an average figure of a 91.5% increase in January (based on over 10 years). However, this number is heavily influenced by the outlier year 2021 – if that year is excluded, the average decreases significantly.

### 2. Historical January/Q1 data of Dogecoin (summary of key years)

Below is the performance of January (or Q1 if there are notable data) over the years:

- 2014–2020: DOGE was mostly sideways or slightly down at the beginning of the year. January often has low volatility, averaging an increase of <20% (if any). For example, 2018: After the pump at the end of 2017, January 2018 started to dump.

- 2021: +711.5% (January) – the biggest outlier, accounting for most of the average seasonality.

- 2022: Bear market, January dropped sharply (~-30–40%).

- 2023: +37.2% (January).

- 2024: Slight increase at the beginning of the year (~20–50% depending on Q1 period), mainly due to a general bull run.

- 2025: By the end of 2025, DOGE is at ~$0.12–$0.15, but corrects at the beginning of 2026.

- 2026 (actual beginning of the year):

- 1/1/2026: Opened at ~**$0.117–$0.127**.

- Short-term peak: On 2/1/2026, it rose to ~**$0.142** (an increase of ~18–20% right at the beginning of the month).

- Then dumped heavily: By the end of January 2026 down to ~**$0.104**, and at the beginning of February 2026 continued to decrease to ~**$0.092–$0.096** (as of 11/2/2026).

- YTD (Year-to-Date) until mid-February 2026: -20–25% (from $0.127 down to ~$0.096).

Summary: Over the span of 12 years (2014–2026), January has been positive about 40–50% of the years (depending on the source). The average increase is pulled high by 2021, but most other years have only been sideways, slightly up, or down.

Seasonality chart from Barchart/TradingView shows that DOGE has stronger volatility in Q1, but not always positive. The best months are usually in April–May or October–November during bull cycles.

### 3. Why many years DOGE did not rise (or dropped) at the beginning of the year?

DOGE does not have a strong independent seasonality like some traditional assets (gold, stocks). The price of DOGE depends almost entirely on:

- Bitcoin cycle: BTC is usually strong in Q1 (especially Feb–Apr) during bull markets → alt/meme coins follow. But if BTC is sideways or bear (like in 2022, early 2026), DOGE tends to dump harder.

- Sentiment & hype: Elon Musk tweets, Reddit/TikTok pump, ETF rumors, major exchange listings. These events are random, not fixed at the beginning of the year.

- Market phase:

- Bull market (2021, part of 2024): High probability of increase.

- Bear/sideways (2022, 2025–2026): Low probability, easily dropping 20–60%.

- Confirmation bias: People remember the huge pump in 2021, forgetting the years of dumps or flat periods.

Currently (February 2026): DOGE is in a correction phase after the peak in 2025 (~$0.48 peak), high BTC dominance, low funding rate, extreme fear sentiment. The DOGE/BTC ratio is at a historically oversold level, but there is no strong catalyst for a rebound yet.

### 4. Actual probabilities and lessons learned

- Probability of a positive January: About 45–55% (based on long-term data).

- Strong increase probability (>50%): Only high during bull cycles (like in 2021), around 10–20% in other years.

- Average increase in January: ~91% if considering all, but the median (mid-value) is much lower (~10–20%).

- Risk: DOGE has extremely high volatility. The current year 2026 is proving this: from +18% at the beginning of January to -25% YTD in just 6 weeks.

Important lesson:

- Don't go all-in just because of "beginning of the year or rise". That's a weak pattern, easily influenced by outliers.

- Monitor BTC dominance, MVRV ratio, social volume, Elon tweets, and macro (Fed interest rates, ETF flow).

- DOGE is suitable for short-term trading or long-term holding if you believe in the community/meme culture, but it is not a "unbreakable rule".

### Conclusion: Not "always high", but depends on the cycle

The probability of Dogecoin rising at the beginning of the year is not always high as rumored. It is only high during global bull markets when there are strong catalysts (Musk, community, BTC pump). The current year 2026 is a typical example: positive start but quickly dumped back to new lows.

If you are holding DOGE, be patient and wait for a deeper dip ($0.08–$0.09) or a new catalyst (like Elon tweets, ETF approval, or BTC breakout). If trading, seasonality is just a secondary factor – don't let it determine your entire position.

What do you think about DOGE at this stage? Holding, DCA dip, or waiting for the next pump? Share your thoughts! 🐶🚀