Recently, there have been many articles about the spot ETF for $BTC, which have been mixed in opinion. Some even believe that the initial expectations for the BTC spot ETF have completely shifted to selling off in the market, and the spot ETF has become an asset that 'not even dogs play with.'

I want to elaborate on some 'key frames' of the Bitcoin spot ETF since January 11, 2024, from a data perspective.

Firstly, institutional buying of the Bitcoin spot ETF has had almost no effect on the spot price; it is all about hedging or arbitrage rather than being bullish on BTC.

This statement is both true and false based on the data revealed from 13F filings. It can indeed be seen that nearly over half are institutions buying the spot ETF, but not all of these institutions are using it for hedging. There is no complete data representation of this, but I don’t think that’s the most important point. The most important thing is that currently, out of the 1,270,839 $BTC held by U.S. investors, more than 90% or even more may be locked up.

Surely many friends do not believe it. It is not said that a large number of BTC spot ETFs are being sold; how could it be locked? The actual answer may be different from what everyone imagines. Starting from January 11, 2024, the U.S. $BTC spot ETF officially begins trading. The number of Bitcoins held by U.S. ETF institutions is 622,351, of which Grayscale accounts for 619,162.

Up to now, the highest amount held by U.S. institutions was on October 8, 2025, after the market closed, with 1,362,278 Bitcoins. On that day, Grayscale held a total of 224,834 BTC, BlackRock held 804,309, and Fidelity ranked third with 207,371. At that time, the price of Bitcoin had just surpassed the historical high of $123,000.

As of today, what is the total amount held by all ETF institutions in the U.S.? Have any friends guessed? Could it be that many friends think it is less than 100,000 coins, or that it is even less than the amount on the first day?

In fact, currently all ETF institutions in the U.S. hold a total of 1,270,839 Bitcoins, of which Grayscale holds 205,294, BlackRock holds 764,909, and Fidelity still ranks third with 189,556. This data indicates that although the price of $BTC has dropped by 46%, the holdings of U.S. ETFs have only decreased by 6.71%, a total of 91,439 coins.

Therefore, my view on Bitcoin spot ETFs is that whether it is hedging, arbitrage, or declining interest, these are not the most important. The most important thing is that it has locked in the liquidity of 1,270,000 Bitcoins. Of course, this number may decrease in the future, or it may increase; no one knows. But at least for now, this many are indeed locked, which should be the biggest help of spot ETFs to the Bitcoin field.

Especially, spot ETFs do not significantly help the price of the spot market. Whether it is AP's buying or selling, it is unlikely that they are trading on the secondary market, so buying and selling are hard to directly affect the price. This is similar to $MSTR. The biggest help these institutions, including MSTR, provide to Bitcoin should be the locking of liquidity. Perhaps one day these will become selling pressure on the market. This is very possible, but it is not the case at the moment.

Now ETF investors are indeed buying less and less, and their interest in cryptocurrencies is decreasing, which is evident from the data. However, these people rarely sell the ETFs they have already bought.