XRP price today is trading near $1.38 and shows early signs of stabilization after several weeks of weakness. On the chart, a known upward pattern has begun to form, similar to previous setups that led to strong rallies. However, on-chain data and derivative data do not confirm the optimism.
Buying pressure has fallen sharply, long-term holders are retreating, and the leverage risk remains high. This creates a conflict between what the chart suggests and how investors are actually behaving.
XRP price is building a known upward pattern
Since the end of January, XRP has formed a structure that has previously come before major rallies.
Between January 31 and February 11, the price made lower lows, while the Relative Strength Index, or RSI, formed higher lows. RSI measures buying and selling pressure. When the price weakens, but RSI improves, it indicates that selling pressure is easing and momentum may reverse.
A similar setup, also on the 12-hour chart, appeared towards the end of December 2025.
At that time, XRP showed the same divergence before it reclaimed the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) on January 2. After this rebound, the price rose over 28%. Now the structure looks familiar again. EMA is a trend indicator that emphasizes recent prices to show short-term momentum.
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Today's divergence suggests that the downward momentum is fading. If XRP manages to reclaim the $1.50 zone, which closely coincides with the 20 EMA and previous resistance, it could attract stronger buying interest.
But on-chain data does not support the bullish theory. At least not yet.
Exchange movements and holders show that buying has collapsed.
On-chain metrics explain why the bullish signal is struggling.
An important indicator is Net Position Change on exchanges. This measures how the total amount of XRP on exchanges has changed over the past 30 days. In short, this shows whether exchange balances are increasing or decreasing month-over-month. When the number is significantly negative, exchange balances decrease, which usually indicates accumulation or outflow.
On February 8, XRP recorded a net outflow of around 107 million tokens. By February 11, the outflow had decreased to about 16 million tokens.
There is a drop of 85% in buying pressure. This means that investors are no longer reducing exchange balances at the same pace. Demand has weakened significantly, even though the chart signaled a bullish setup.
The same pattern can be found in Hodler Net Position Change, which tracks wallets that have held XRP for more than 155 days.
On February 1, long-term holders increased their holdings by around 337 million XRP. By February 11, the accumulation had decreased to about 128 million XRP.
This corresponds to a decline of over 60%.
Simply put: exchange balances are increasing, clearly driven by weakened long-term accumulation. Investors who typically support strong rallies remain cautious. But why?
Derivative risk explains why investors hesitate.
In the Binance XRP/USDT perpetual market, the mid-term liquidation data shows that short positions dominate. Over the next 30 days, short-side liquidation exposure is valued at nearly $148 million, while long-side exposure is around $83 million.
This shows that traders are opting for defense and positioning themselves for downside risk. Long-term holders seem to follow the majority here.
Short-term positioning tells a different story.
On the one-day chart, this time on Gate, long liquidations are approaching $63.9 million, while shorts are around $51 million. This means that 30% more positions are currently exposed on the long side. If the XRP price falls even a small percentage, driven by a weak and fearful market, long positions could be forced out quickly, which could lead to a deeper fall.
Long-term holders are aware of this risk, as long liquidations have previously affected optimism. Therefore, instead of chasing a weak rally, they are waiting for confirmation and support for mid-term positions, mainly shorts. This is why the pressure on spot buying has not returned despite the bullish divergence.
XRP price levels you should follow now
With technical optimism conflicting with weak conviction, price levels are now crucial. The key support level is near $1.34.
This zone corresponds with the largest long liquidation cluster. If XRP closes below $1.34, it could trigger forced selling and invalidate the upward structure. In that case, the price may slide down towards $1.12. On the upside, $1.50 remains the critical barrier.
This level coincides with the 20 EMA and a psychological resistance area. A sustained move above $1.50 is likely to restore confidence and bring long-term buyers back. Without this breakthrough, rallies are likely to remain unstable.
Right now, XRP is stuck between increasing momentum and declining conviction. The chart shows that the pressure is easing.
On-chain data shows that demand is lacking. And derivative data shows that the risk remains high. Until XRP stays above $1.34 and regains $1.50, the bullish outlook remains weak.