$SOL after experiencing a significant decline, is currently weakly fluctuating around 80, and is in the stage of a technical rebound within a downtrend.
🎯 Direction: No Position
Market Analysis: The price (80.08) is below EMA20 (82.23) and EMA50 (87.52), overall trend is bearish. Although there is a slight rebound on the 4H level, the last K-line closed at 80.04, indicating weak buying strength.
Core Logic: The current rebound lacks key supporting elements. 1. The funding rate (-0.0167%) is negative, the open interest (OI) trend is stable, and there is a possibility of a short squeeze, but the price has not effectively stood above EMA20, and the RSI (37.95) is still in the weak zone, not a strong bullish signal. 2. Deep imbalance (14.73%) and buy/sell ratio (1.35) show that buy orders are concentrated below, mainly around the 80 integer mark, and the support strength needs to be tested.
Trading Plan: Currently in a continuation pattern of decline, going long lacks trend and momentum confirmation, while going short faces the risk of a short squeeze under negative rates. The best strategy is to remain in cash and wait. If the price can break through and stabilize above EMA20 (82.3), it can be considered a short-term trend reversal signal. If it falls below 79.5 (recent fluctuation low), then a continuation of the decline is established, and short selling opportunities for rebounds can be sought.
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