Who is the biggest player in the surge of gold?

Friends, I have a question for everyone, who is the biggest player in the surge of gold?

When gold breaks 4500 dollars, if you can't even figure this out, shouldn't you calm down?

Are you really here to invest?

Or are they just a bunch of retail investors following the trend?

Why do you say that?

Because in this round of surge in precious metals like gold and silver, this answer is very important.

Will the Federal Reserve continue to cut interest rates?

What is the relationship between gold and the dollar?

Will silver be regulated due to its surge?

Can we still buy ETFs?

What impact does the rebalancing of the booming commodity index have?

Why do precious metals collectively rise?

If you can figure out who the biggest bull is, then all these dilemmas that keep you awake at night will have answers.

Let’s start with the data: gold rises from 2062 to 2639 in 2024, an increase of 27%; gold rises from 2639 to 4500 in 2025, an increase of 70%; silver rises from 23.82 to 29.59 in 2024, an increase of 24%; silver rises from 29.65 to 81 in 2025, an increase of 173%.

Precious metals represented by gold and silver showed an abnormal excess surge in 2025.

According to the World Gold Council, the net inflow of North American gold ETFs reached 346 tons in the first three quarters of 2025, the largest single source of buying globally.

Please note this significant change: before 2024, gold was purchased by Asian central banks while being sold by Western institutions, but in 2025 it changed to Asian central banks buying again while Western institutions went crazy to grab.

Who is the biggest player in the rise of gold?

When the focus is narrowed to North America, then the answer becomes clear.

You have all heard of this person's name, but 90% of retail investors have never seriously understood him.

You only know his hellish jokes, you only know he beat up Musk, you only know he’s a clown, but you’ve never cared about what kind of person he is as the 79th U.S. Treasury Secretary, one of the most powerful figures in the White House. What are his economic theories? What biases does he have in his financial philosophy? What kind of person is he? If he is the biggest player in the gold surge, with the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, tariff wars, controlling Latin America, and the dollar, what kind of answer can you draw?

He is the core figure we are talking about, Scott - Besant.

When you truly understand Besant's actions, you will grasp the real direction of gold and silver prices in 2026.

If you were to travel back to 2010 and become a student of economics at Yale University, you would open your eyes in class, and your university professor would be encouragingly looking at you. Classmate, could you answer what the reasons were for the collapse of the pound as a currency in 1992? You rubbed your head, and the scattered sunlight poured into the lecture hall as the freckled girl at the neighboring desk whispered, trying to give you the answer.

A waft of mocha coffee fragrance comes from the corridor, and you remember that your economics professor is named Scott - Besant, and the course you are taking is called Financial Prosperity and Depression of the 20th Century.

You feel a bit bad; you don't want to leave a bad impression on Professor Besant because you also took his class on hedge fund history, theory, and practice, and the financial panic from 2007 to 2009.

Fifteen years later, when you sit in an office on Wall Street drinking coffee, and your colleagues are speculating whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates, the aroma of mocha coffee in your hand reminds you of the answer to this question.

Professor Besant views the collapse of the pound in 1992 as a cost of policy arrogance, as the leadership of the time blindly followed foreign interest rates due to their indulgence in the historical halo of the British Empire's currency as a global anchor point, leading to systematic collapse during economic recession.

Monetary hegemony cannot be maintained solely by political will or central bank intervention; this awareness does not come from theoretical textbooks in class but from Besant's personal experience.

On Black Wednesday, September 16, 1992, as the head of Soros Fund Management's London office, Besant was not only a witness to this short-selling battle against the pound but also a key provider of intelligence.

As a student of Professor Besant, you knew from the very beginning that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts were never a matter of probability, but a certainty with only one answer.

In Professor Besant's class on hedge fund history, theory, and practice, you received the most important piece of advice for working in the investment industry: What is investment?

It is about finding trading opportunities with limited downside risk and vast upside potential.

Whether you are a professional institutional analyst or a retail investor, you should remember this sentence in your notebook.

As a seasoned hedge fund manager, Besant's biggest difference from traditional treasury secretaries is that he views U.S. assets like a hedge fund manager. He believes the Treasury's balance sheet is filled with sleeping, undervalued assets that, if monetized or mobilized, would greatly alleviate the U.S. debt pressure. This asset is gold.

Besant is the first U.S. Treasury Secretary in decades to openly acknowledge his inclination toward gold bugs. In an interview with Tucker Carlson, he candidly admitted: 'When I run a fund, people may call me a gold bug.'

This position itself marks a historic turning point in the U.S. government's attitude toward gold.

Besant has been pushing to monetize and revalue the gold in the U.S. Treasury.

The U.S. Treasury holds about 261 million ounces of gold, but its book value is still calculated at the statutory price of 42.2 dollars per ounce from 1973, totaling only about 11 billion dollars.

According to the market price in 2025, these reserves are worth trillions of dollars.

If the historically priced gold reserves are recalculated at market prices, it can effectively repair the government's balance sheet without increasing external debt.

In the past, the Federal Reserve and the Treasury often viewed gold as a threat to the dollar system, while Besant proposed that gold is a strategic asset and emphasized that gold has no fiscal issues, no budget deficits, and is the only and pure means of value storage. This official trend shift eliminates the political risks of holding gold for institutional investors and encourages Wall Street moguls like Morgan Stanley to shout buy on the dips; this will be the largest correction of the global monetary system since Nixon's shock in 1971.

If you understand this attitude, you will realize that all those self-media platforms still discussing the relationship between gold and the dollar are talking nonsense, because from the perspective of the U.S. government's intentional stance, the antagonistic relationship between gold and the dollar has already changed.

As a student of economics, you also took an elective on the financial panic from 2007 to 2009, which is also the course that Professor Besant claims to like the most.

In class, Besant used this course to show students that investors are not rational observers; their biases can alter market fundamentals. Those events considered rare in textbooks may be happening every week in reality.

In Yale's classroom, Besant demonstrated through the examples of the yen and the pound that once the market forms a certain trend, this trend itself will attract capital flows, thus creating a self-fulfilling prosperity or collapse.

What do we mean by self-fulfilling prosperity or collapse? How does emotional panic change the market fundamentals? Today's margin increase at the CME, the wild fluctuations in gold and silver, is a short-term case worth analyzing.

Are many people worried that the surge in gold and silver will trigger regulatory changes? Just like the two historical collapses of silver after hitting 50 dollars, both originated from strong regulatory interventions, whether it was raising margins or limiting new positions, all would have a huge impact on the market.

In 1980, during the Hunt brothers' incident, to curb inflation and speculation, Federal Reserve Chairman Volcker raised interest rates sharply, and the exchanges implemented the notorious silver rules, which stipulated that only liquidations were allowed, and no new positions could be opened. This directly cut off buying power, leading to a free fall in prices.

In 2011, during quantitative easing, when silver approached 50 dollars, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange raised the margin five times in a row within 9 days, with a cumulative increase of 84%.

This targeted regulatory demolition forces leveraged traders to be liquidated, causing a price avalanche. However, in Besant's script, the logic of regulation undergoes a fundamental reversal.

Besant explicitly criticized the financial regulation after 2008, arguing that the Dodd-Frank Act is a straitjacket that binds the market.

As a former Soros fund manager, Besant is deeply influenced by Soros's reflexivity theory, believing that while market prices may deviate from fundamentals, forcibly intervening through administrative means is a more serious mistake.

He is unlikely to support the CME guiding prices through frequent margin increases like in 2011, so although the CME raised margins today, will this regulation continue to strengthen?

We do not believe so. After taking office, Besant quickly assumed the role of acting director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and halted all enforcement actions. This tough approach to deregulation sent a clear signal to the market that as long as it does not trigger systematic bank failures, the Treasury will not act as the market's moral enforcer.

If Besant were the chief screenwriter, he might control the rapid rise of silver through certain regulations, but silver is likely to avoid a third collapse due to regulatory suppression.

Friends, please note that silver was pierced by regulation in the first two instances; this time it may be because it flew too high and suffocated from lack of oxygen.

This time silver is facing a courtless arena, and Besant will watch from the sidelines, even taking pleasure in it, using the rise of precious metals to hedge against the decline of fiat currency credit.

This means that silver is very likely to effectively hold above 100 dollars for the first time in history, but the danger lies in the lack of regulatory brakes; the market often rushes towards the cliff, and the risks faced by investors are no longer about rule changes; the natural reversal of the market may be more violent and chaotic than regulatory intervention.

Here, I would like to emphasize again why our Gold Intelligence Bureau never advises anyone to choose silver.

Because of unprecedented laissez-faire, it could even evolve into a more drastic and unsafe super bubble. Friends, returning to the price level of gold, why do we say that Besant is the biggest player in the gold surge?

Besant proposed establishing a Trump account and a U.S. sovereign wealth fund, predicting that the initial capital of these funds might partly come from the profits of the gold revaluation, or these funds would be authorized to strategically hold physical assets. If the U.S. government starts to establish strategic reserves of critical minerals like purchasing strategic petroleum reserves, it will mark the formal intervention of national power into the precious metals buyer market.

Besant uses the appreciation of gold to create fiscal space, which is essentially inflationary. This pragmatic view of gold has a far greater stimulating effect on gold prices than the dogmatic return to the gold standard, as it implies that the government has the motivation to actively push up gold prices to maximize its asset value.

Based on the foundation laid in 2025, we can deduce the evolution path of Besantism in the coming years and its impact on precious metals.

Besant referred to the early stage of his administration as the economic detoxifier, which signifies the rectification of fiscal discipline and the normalization of interest rates. During this period, traditional financial assets like stocks and high-yield bonds may face pressure, while gold will serve as a bridge asset to absorb funds withdrawn from bubble assets.

The market will realize that the so-called detoxification must be accompanied by some form of debt restructuring or inflation dilution, thus firmly holding gold.

With the advancement of the Triple Three Plan, if deregulation and tax reduction policies take effect, the U.S. economy may enter an overheating phase, which will be the shining moment for silver.

The explosion of industrial demand together with inflation expectations could push silver to a historic high, while gold will rise steadily, playing the role of an inflation hedge.

At the end of his term, Besant faces the ultimate test: Can he complete deficit reduction without triggering a debt crisis?

If all goes well, productivity improvements may offset inflation, stabilizing gold prices at high levels and becoming the cornerstone of the new monetary system.

If growth falls short of expectations and deficits spiral out of control, Besant's last trump card, complete gold monetization, will be played, potentially causing gold prices to surge parabolically to mask the real debt defaults with nominal price explosions.

The surge in precious metals in 2025 is essentially the result of Scott - Besant elevating the macro hedge fund strategy to a national grand strategy; he is not only managing the Treasury but also trading the enormous asset portfolio of the United States.

Friends, please remember that Besant's strategy is essentially to dilute stock debt through nominal growth; to achieve this goal, it is necessary to tolerate inflation slightly above interest rates. This environment of negative real interest rates is the strongest driving force for gold and silver. As gold investors, we must reinterpret and understand Besant; his worldview was not formed in the theoretical models of ivory towers but was forged in the smoke of monetary crises.

In the 1992 pound incident, Besant made over 1 billion dollars in profits for Soros Fund.

We emphasize again that Scott - Besant's appointment actually transforms the U.S. Treasury from a purely administrative body into a national-level asset management company with proactive trading strategies. This will become the foundational logic for our investment trading in 2026.

We need to clearly recognize who the biggest player in the gold surge is and what style this player has.

What is the bias? Where is the target?

Back in Professor Besant's classroom, let’s review the most valuable trading principle he taught us: What is investment? It is finding trading opportunities with limited downside risk and vast upside potential.

What is the biggest opportunity in 2026? It is to understand the big players and follow them.