A Bloomberg-reviewed memo suggests a potentially seismic shift in global payments: Russia is reportedly weighing a return to US-dollar settlements as part of a proposed trade deal with the Trump administration. The document outlines seven areas of economic realignment between Washington and Moscow, and — if approved — could see dollar-denominated settlements resume as early as 2026. For a Kremlin that has spent recent years pushing a de-dollarization agenda, that would be a major reversal. The draft deal is said to target energy and strategic commodities — including fossil fuels, natural gas, offshore oil and critical raw minerals — positioning those sectors at the center of renewed US‑Russia commercial ties. The reopening of trade would follow roughly four years of growing isolation for Russia after it was cut off from SWIFT in 2022 amid sweeping sanctions tied to the war in Ukraine. The memo also reports the White House is weighing a gradual lifting of some sanctions as part of negotiations. The potential return to dollar settlements could ripple across existing payment alignments. Russia and China have moved most bilateral trade toward the Chinese yuan: Bloomberg notes nearly 90% of their deal flow is settled in yuan, with the remaining volumes settled in rubles, UAE dirhams and other currencies. A US-Russia trade pact that restores dollar usage could curb further yuan adoption between Moscow and Beijing and complicate the BRICS bloc’s de-dollarization efforts. The story comes as several BRICS members seek deeper trade ties with the US. The memo points out that almost all BRICS countries are engaging Washington to secure advantages after recent tariff disputes — and it notes India recently clinched a deal with the Trump administration, underscoring US influence over global trade arrangements. For crypto markets and dollar-watchers, the implications are notable. A renewed role for the US dollar in Russian settlements could shore up dollar demand and blunt momentum behind alternative currency arrangements that have motivated some countries to explore digital and non‑dollar payment rails. At the same time, any easing of sanctions would be a key variable for on‑chain flows and sanctions-avoidance monitoring. The proposal has not been made public and remains subject to negotiation. If it advances, the pact would not only reshape bilateral energy and minerals trade but could also recalibrate broader geopolitical and payment-system alignments — making 2026 a year to watch for currency, commodity and crypto markets. Read more AI-generated news on: undefined/news

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