Bitcoin’s fall hasn’t yet produced the kind of capitulation seen in past bear-market washouts — and on-chain metrics show why. After trimming gains from six-figure highs into the $80k–$70k band, profit-taking and softer inflows pushed BTC toward key on-chain support. But Bitcoin is still trading roughly 18% above the $55,000 “realized price” (the average price paid by current holders), whereas historical bottoms typically sit 24–30% below that level. In short: the washout threshold hasn’t been hit, so full capitulation has not formed (CryptoQuant). What the on-chain indicators reveal - NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) dropped into the 0.20–0.30 zone as unrealized profits compressed, but it hasn’t fallen to 0.0 or negative territory seen at prior bottoms — a sign panic loss distribution has not occurred. - MVRV eased toward ~2.0 with valuation cool-downs, reflecting profit-taking but remaining well above the sub-10 capitulation band. Because most holders remain broadly profitable, forced selling has been limited, allowing BTC to stabilize and build a longer base before any recovery (CryptoQuant). Capital flows and the impulse story - Realized Cap Impulse — a measure that tracks real capital entering the market — stayed firmly above +2.0 through 2023 and early 2024, underpinning BTC’s rally from under $30k to the $70k and eventually six-figure territory. ETF inflows and institutional allocations poured in billions, while long-term holders absorbed supply, signaling strong demand and conviction (Alphractal). - By late 2025 the impulse peaks waned from above +4.5 toward +2.0 even as price hovered near $100k, showing that fresh capital was arriving at a slower pace and profit-taking began to supplant accumulation. As impulse compressed toward 0.0 and then turned negative in early 2026, structural capital contraction appeared. With supply still present, price softened into the $85k–$90k range — a reflection of diminished demand strength (Alphractal). Who’s in profit, who’s not — and what that means - Roughly 50% of BTC supply remained in profit at the time of writing, indicating unrealized gains have thinned and demand buffers are weaker. - STH-MVRV (short-term holder MVRV) near 0.95 shows recent buyers are underwater, which helps explain episodes of panic-driven selling. By contrast, LTHs (long-term holders) show stable realized cap, suggesting longer-term conviction has held up. - That dynamic is visible in behavior: realized losses spiked as short-term holders moved more than 100,000 BTC to exchanges — a forced distribution — while Accumulation Trend Scores have also risen, pointing to renewed dip-buying and some absorption. Liquidity picture: exchanges, ETFs and volumes - Exchange flows have been mixed: capitulation-style inflows during dips have been offset by episodic outflows that tighten available supply. Meanwhile, ETF outflows and thinner spot volumes have reinforced a defensive consolidation regime, leaving the market vulnerable until fresh capital arrives. What could re-accelerate the rally? Renewed ETF inflows, fresh long-term accumulation, and broader macro liquidity expansion would likely be required to reverse the recent structural weakening. Continued deterioration in inflows and holder profitability could extend corrective conditions. Sources: CryptoQuant; Alphractal Disclaimer: AMBCrypto's content is informational and not investment advice. Cryptocurrency trading carries high risk; readers should do their own research before acting. © 2026 AMBCrypto Read more AI-generated news on: undefined/news

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