As an analytical benchmark, the realized price $BTC is used— a price level that historically served as a support zone in past bear cycles. Currently, Bitcoin is trading about 25% above this level. For comparison: after the collapse of the FTX cryptocurrency exchange, the price dropped 24% below the realized price, and in the 2018 cycle— by 30% below. After reaching such levels, Bitcoin typically spent four to six months forming a base for growth.
Despite the scale of losses in early February, the bottom price of the first cryptocurrency is still far off, analysts at CryptoQuant assert:
Firstly, the accumulated monthly losses (0.3 million BTC) are significantly lower than the levels typical for the bottom of the bear cycle — at the end of 2022, this figure reached 1.1 million BTC.
Secondly, the MVRV ratio, reflecting the relationship between market and realized value, has not yet entered the zone of extreme undervaluation, which usually signals the achievement of a bottom.
Another important indicator, the NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit and Loss, the ratio between unrealized profit and unrealized loss of holders), has also not reached the level of 20% unrealized losses typical for the lows of past cycles.
Additionally, experts draw attention to the behavior of long-term holders: they are currently selling the asset at approximately the purchase price. In previous instances at the bottom, they experienced losses in the range of 30-40%. Currently, 55% of bitcoin supply remains in profit. This figure exceeds the 45-50% typically observed at market cycle lows, experts indicate.
The CryptoQuant phase indicator remains in the 'Bear' phase, not in the extreme 'Extreme Bear' phase. Analysts assure that the extreme phase usually lasts for several months, confirming the thesis of the prolonged nature of bottom formation.
On February 5, bitcoin holders recorded $5.4 billion in losses amid a 14% drop in the price of the first cryptocurrency to $62,000. This is the largest daily loss since March 2023, when it amounted to $5.8 billion. The figure also exceeded the $4.3 billion in losses recorded a few days after the FTX collapse in November 2022. Short-term bitcoin holders' losses over the past week reached $2.3 billion, marking one of the largest capitulation events since the crash of 2021, calculated by CryptoQuant.