Bitcoin (BTC) fell to around $61,000 earlier this month before recovering to $70,000 on Saturday, but this rebound has not significantly alleviated the overall bearish sentiment in the market.
This cryptocurrency has dropped about 45% from its all-time high of $126,210 recorded on October 6, and the Fear & Greed Index on CoinMarketCap remains at 11, still in the deep 'Extreme Fear' zone.
This decline is the steepest adjustment since 2022, when Bitcoin fell from $69,000 to below $16,000.
Factors increasing selling pressure
According to on-chain data, large holders are still moving Bitcoin to exchanges. Blockchain analytics firm Lookonchain reported that wallets associated with former BitForex CEO **Garrett Jin** deposited about 5,000 Bitcoins worth approximately $349 million to Binance this week.
Jin also withdrew 53.12 million USDT from the exchange, which could be interpreted as a sign that the transaction has been completed. He is reported to still hold over 30,000 Bitcoins.
Jin is a controversial figure. In October 2025, wallets suspected to be associated with him opened large short positions about 30 minutes before Donald Trump announced the proposal to impose 100% tariffs on China, triggering liquidations exceeding $19 billion in cryptocurrency.
Jin denied any association with the Trump family and claimed that the wallets in question belong to customers. On-chain investigator ZachXBT also expressed skepticism regarding the claim that Jin is the 'whale' behind the transaction.
Separately, Whale Alert captured 1,651 BTC worth approximately $114 million moving from an unknown wallet to Binance, indicating ongoing inflow pressure to the exchange.
Read more: Nic Carter Warns BlackRock Could 'Fire the Devs' If Bitcoin Ignores Quantum Risk
What exchange flow shows
The net flow of Bitcoin exchanges switched sharply to a negative (-) direction at the beginning of February.
On February 3, the net inflow amount reached approximately $450 million, coinciding with the period when the BTC price was falling towards $65,000 until February 6.
Subsequently, on February 6-7, a net outflow exceeding $250 million was observed, indicating that prices were stabilizing. Since February 8, the flow has shown a smaller and more balanced pattern, suggesting that the intense selling pressure may have somewhat eased.
Context of the bear market
Bitcoin has been in a downward trend for about 4 months since reaching a peak of $126,210 on October 6, 2025. Previous bear markets differed significantly in duration and drop magnitude.
In the 2021-2022 cycle, a 77% drop occurred over about 12 months from the peak. In the 2017-2018 cycle, a drop of 84% occurred over about 13 months. The current drop of 45% is quite significant, but compared to these past cases, it is not yet at historically extreme levels.
Some analysts assume much lower lows, with price ranges between $32,000 and $49,000 being mentioned on social media.
However, these estimates are based on the similarity of patterns with previous cycles, and there are limitations in predicting due to fundamentally changed market conditions since 2022, including institutional participation, ETF capital flows, and macroeconomic environment.
Next read: X Will Not Act As A Crypto Brokerage, Nikita Bier Clarifies Hours After Trading Hype