Bitcoin’s price has stalled below $70,000 and a growing number of analysts are reading the recent weakness as evidence the market may be sliding into a corrective, bear-like phase. Several core on-chain and price indicators have begun to flash signals consistent with extended downside, suggesting the current pullback may not be over. Two metrics in particular are drawing attention. First, CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost highlighted the Bitcoin Daily Price Analysis with SMA Multiplier, which combines moving averages with standard-deviation “multiples” to show valuation extremes. Bitcoin recently moved back into the chart’s green zone and is inching toward the 4‑year simple moving average (SMA), currently near $57,500. On this framework, higher standard-deviation multiples signal overbought conditions, while prices nearer the 4‑year SMA read as increasingly undervalued. Darkfost notes that historically this 4‑year SMA region has tended to mark the late stages of bear markets — periods where BTC hovered near these levels for months — and believes the market is now edging into that historically significant zone. Second, analyst Joao Wedson is pointing to the BTC Long-Term Holder (LTH) Realized Price Bands as another gauge of cycle lows. Wedson observes that major bottoms have often coincided with the price hitting roughly the -0.2 standard-deviation band of this metric — moments associated with capitulation and the last major buying opportunity before a new bull run. By contrast, recent action showed BTC struggling to sustain moves above the +1 standard-deviation band over the weekend, a pattern that implies active, aggressive selling by shorts or long-term sellers at those higher levels. Together, these indicators act as evolving maps of support and resistance across cycles: the LTH bands mark zones where long-term holders historically defend prices, while the SMA-multiplier chart highlights when BTC becomes extremely overbought or undervalued relative to its multi-year trend. As BTC approaches these lower thresholds, the probability of a structural bottom historically rises — but so does market tension, with asymmetric risk concentrated in the zones the charts now identify. What to watch next: traders and analysts will be watching whether Bitcoin finds durable support around the 4‑year SMA and the lower LTH bands or whether selling pressure drives prices further into the bear-like territory those tools imply. For now, the market sits at a decision point between lingering weakness and long-term valuation support — and whether history repeats or a new cycle dynamic emerges remains the central question for the weeks ahead. Read more AI-generated news on: undefined/news

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