Hedera has seen a slight uptrend in recent sessions. HBAR price remains hampered by cautious sentiment in the broader crypto market. Uncertainty surrounding Bitcoin and macro conditions continue to limit upside attempts.
However, bears should keep an eye on changing signals. Derivatives and capital flow indicators suggest that the current balance could change.
Hedera traders could be in trouble
HBAR is currently experiencing strong bearish positioning in the futures market. Traders have opened a significant number of short contracts, reflecting expectations of further declines. The liquidation chart shows that the positions favor bears at current levels.
Data shows that HBAR bears could face approximately $4.9 million in liquidations if the price crosses the $0.1143 level. Such forced liquidations could trigger rapid, upward volatility. As short positions close, buying pressure increases as traders close their contracts.
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The Chaikin Money Flow indicator provides further insight into capital movements. The CMF measures inflows and outflows to assess whether buyers or sellers are dominating. The indicator is currently trending up, although it is at the zero line.
An upward slope at zero suggests that outflows are on par with inflows. However, this gap is likely to narrow as inflows increase. Falling outflows often precede a shift toward net inflows. If this happens, HBAR could find the support it needs for a short-term rally.
Correlation trends also support a possible reversal. HBAR’s correlation with Bitcoin has been falling in recent weeks. The current coefficient has dropped to 0.09, signaling a weaker correlation with the crypto market leader, and is approaching a point where HBAR could completely decouple from Bitcoin.
Lower correlation can be an advantage for altcoins during periods of uncertainty surrounding Bitcoin. If HBAR decouples further, price movements may reflect investor demand rather than general market weakness. This flexibility could allow HBAR to follow a more independent upward trajectory.
HBAR is trading at $0.1019 at the time of writing. The altcoin is holding above the key support level of $0.0961 at the 38.2% Fib line. However, it is facing resistance at $0.1035, which coincides with the 50% Fib retracement. This level is currently limiting the upward momentum.
If $0.1035 becomes a support level, it will mark a short-term breakout. Combined with lower outflows, this could strengthen a rally. HBAR will then target $0.1109 at the 61.8% Fibonacci.
This level is considered a critical support level for an asset, and breaking above it will likely trigger stronger buying among investors, which will lift HBAR's price higher.
This would push HBAR past $0.1143, a level that threatens $4.9 million in short liquidations. Sustained strength could extend gains further towards $0.1215 and ultimately $0.1349, which would help recover losses so far this year.
If bullish signals fail to materialize, the consolidation may continue. Continued outflows will limit further attempts at a breakout. A drop below the $0.0961 support level could lead HBAR to more downside around $0.0870. Such a move would invalidate the short-term bullish forecast and strengthen the bears’ control.