The centralized exchange Gemini has recently announced the departure of three senior executives. This organizational restructuring is part of a broader reduction in operations and workforce.
After this announcement, the company's stock price has fallen further. This has resulted in an extension of the decline that has been ongoing since Gemini went public last September. Recent changes have raised doubts about the long-term outlook of the exchange.
Executive changes…follow-up measures after significant layoffs
In a recent blog post, Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss revealed that Gemini has parted ways with its Chief Financial Officer (CFO), Chief Legal Officer (CLO), and Chief Operating Officer (COO). Interim replacements have been appointed for the CFO and CLO roles, while the COO position is expected to remain vacant.
The founders described these changes as part of a comprehensive transformation process for the company. This change is referred to as 'Gemini 2.0,' and they stated that recent trends in the cryptocurrency industry have influenced the directional shift.
"During this period, more recently, the rapid advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) are dramatically changing the way Gemini operates. At the same time, the emergence of prediction markets is rapidly transforming the marketplace. We are not an exception." – Gemini blog post
This announcement has garnered more attention following Gemini's decision to reduce its global workforce by 25% a few weeks ago. Additionally, Gemini has exited several overseas markets, including the UK, European Union, and Australia.
These changes have increased the volatility of the company's stock. The steep decline that has continued since its listing shows no signs of abating. Investors who purchased shares at the IPO price of $28 are currently facing a loss of about 77%.
According to a recent report from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Gemini expects a net loss of approximately $595 million in 2025.
All these changes have led to a stricter evaluation of the exchange's value.
Public market, reassessment of Gemini's growth
The sharp correction in Gemini's stock has reignited the debate over whether the exchange was fundamentally overvalued at the time of its listing.
The initial assessment at the time of listing reflected expectations of sustained trading volume and revenue growth. Given that the cryptocurrency market is cyclical, pricing may have been significantly influenced by high trading activity and active participation from retail investors.
The subsequent decline suggests a reassessment of revenue expectations in line with the overall market contraction.
It also indicates that competitive pressures among centralized exchanges are intensifying.
Market share and liquidity are concentrated in large platforms with deeper order books and strong network effects. In contrast, mid-sized exchanges are facing increased fixed cost burdens due to insufficient trading volumes.
Recent data from CoinGecko also supports this situation.
In the January trading volume-based centralized exchange market share report, the data indicates that by 2025, Binance will account for 39.2% of the total spot trading volume of the top exchanges, recording a trading volume of $7.3 trillion. Major platforms like Bybit, MEXC, and Coinbase also maintain significant shares in global trading volume.
Gemini did not make it into the top 10. According to CoinMarketCap data, the exchange is currently ranked 24th, with a 24-hour trading volume of $54 million.
Against this backdrop, workforce reductions and exits from overseas markets may be part of cost control and strategic adjustments. These are measures to respond to an increasingly consolidated market.
How Gemini implements this change will influence whether shareholders view the current situation as a short-term correction or a long-term structural issue.