Today is February 20, 2026 (Lunar Calendar: Fourth Day of the First Month). Looking back at the market trends from the first day of the Lunar New Year to today, the overall cryptocurrency market has shown a trend of "long holiday washout and low-level consolidation."

The following is a specific review and analysis of the market:

1. Overall Market Review (First to Fourth Day)

* Bitcoin ($BTC ): Slight rebound after a stepwise decline

* First Day (2/17): The market opened around $68,800, but soon faced profit-taking sell-offs from the Asia-Pacific region, with prices dropping to around $67,000.

* Second to Third Day (2/18-2/19): Continued to fluctuate in the range of $66,500 - $67,500. Although U.S. tech stocks (like MicroStrategy, MARA) saw a counter-trend rise, BTC spot failed to effectively break through $68,000.

* Fourth Day (Today 2/20): BTC is currently reported at about $67,238. After touching $66,900, there was a slight rebound, indicating that short-term bottom support is forming, but since it is still in a downward channel, the pressure at $68,500 remains heavy.

* Ethereum $ETH : Weak consolidation, hovering around critical points

* ETH has performed relatively weakly during this Spring Festival, currently reported at about $1,949.

* Mainly affected by the turbulence in the L2 sector (such as Base announcing a shift in its technical route, leading to the weakening of OP and ARB), ETH has consistently failed to hold the key level of $2,000 and is currently in a volume-reducing bottom-seeking stage.

2. Driving Factors Analysis

* Seasonal selling pressure during the Spring Festival: The significant increase at the beginning of 2026 led to liquidity depletion due to the cashing out demands of Asia-Pacific investors during the holiday period (withdrawals for the New Year, profit-taking).

* Macroeconomic policy games: The U.S. January CPI data released on February 15 was lower than expected, enhancing expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, which was initially positive. However, due to institutional investors choosing to avoid geopolitical uncertainties during the long holiday, capital inflow fell short of expectations.

* Large investors "scooping up": Despite retail sentiment being low, data shows that large institutions (such as Sharplink) increased their holdings of ETH significantly during the holiday and engaged in staking, indicating that long-term capital is taking the opportunity to "scoop up."

Brief Comment: The decline from the first to the fourth day is more like a **"deep breath"** after the bull market rise in 2025. Currently, the market sentiment index is about 8 (extreme fear), but technical indicators have shown divergence signals, and rebound momentum is building up.

#Strategy增持比特币 #ETH trend analysis