#玩家通过预测马斯克推文数量在Polymarket赚取 34.5 million dollars🎯 34.5 million dollars case: Make big money on Polymarket relying on Musk's tweet count

1. Core of the event

- Player: Anonymous quantitative trader (verifiable on-chain)

- Target: Market for predicting the number of Musk X (formerly Twitter) tweets per week/day on Polymarket

- Profit: 34.5 million dollars (approximately 340k USDC)

- Time: End of 2025 to early 2026, single cycle/multiple cycles accumulated

2. Strategy: Statistical arbitrage (simple but effective)

1. Data foundation

- Crawl Musk's historical tweet volume: weekdays > weekends, most active in February, winter is 3.1 times busier than summer

- Calculate daily/weekly averages: for example, December daily average is about 48 tweets

2. Market pricing deviation

- Polymarket prices by range (e.g., 320–339, 340–359…), retail investors often underestimate high-probability ranges

- Players found: the total probability for the 320–400 range is only 79%, but the historical win rate is over 90%

3. Operational methods

- Heavily buy the entire range of 320–400 (diversified betting, covering real distribution)

- Low cost per unit (a few cents), correct settlement is 1 dollar/unit, extremely high odds

- Use mathematical expectation rather than emotion, execute repeatedly

3. Key logic (replicable)

- It’s not about luck, it’s statistical arbitrage**: Using historical patterns to crush retail investor emotional pricing**

- Risk control: Cover high-probability ranges, low cost, high win rate, large odds

- Market loophole: Retail investors on Polymarket often misprice continuous data (tweet counts) relative to the true distribution

4. Similar opportunities (can copy homework)

- Celebrity post counts (Trump, CZ, Vitalik)

- Weekly updates of crypto projects, on-chain activity volume

- Sports event scores, home/away win rates

- Macroeconomic data (CPI, non-farm) range predictions