#XPL下行趋势 $XPL
XPL Downward Trend (Binance, 2026-02-20 16:40)
Current Price: $0.0905 (24h $0.0904–$0.0986), 24h -6.4%; Daily/Weekly clearly downward channel, bears dominate.
I. Trend Confirmation (Bears Dominate)
- Daily: Price continuously below EMA20 ($0.10), MA50/MA200 diverging downwards, complete downward channel (upper limit $0.12, lower limit $0.07).
- 4 hours: RSI≈32, close to oversold but not reversed; volume continues to shrink, rebound weak.
- Weekly: Consecutive bearish candles, no bottoming signal, medium-term bearish.
II. Key Resistance/Support (Binance)
- Resistance (Bearish Defense):
- First Resistance: $0.098→$0.10 (EMA20 + daily high + dense trapping)
- Strong Resistance: $0.105→$0.12 (channel upper limit + previous platform)
- Support (Bearish Target):
- First Support: $0.082→$0.08 (strong support + Fibonacci)
- Strong Support: $0.07→$0.068 (historical low + channel lower limit)
III. Funds and Contracts
- Perpetual Long/Short Ratio 0.85, bears dominate; funding rate -0.03%, bears profit.
- OI continues to decline, leveraged funds exiting, no bottom-fishing funds entering.
- On-chain: Dense selling pressure above $0.10, rebound meets selling pressure immediately.
IV. Trading Strategy (Downward Trend)
- Trade with the trend, do not bottom-fish:
- Rebound to **$0.098–$0.10 faces resistance, open short, stop loss at $0.105**, target **$0.082→$0.07**.
- Break below **$0.08 increase short position, target $0.07→$0.068**.
- Prohibit going long: Rebounds in a downward trend are mostly inducements to go long, bottom-fishing risk is extremely high.
- Risk Control: Strict stop loss, small coins have poor liquidity, easy to spike.
V. Risk Warning
- If the market (BTC) strongly rebounds, XPL may briefly rebound, but the downward trend will not change.
- If it breaks above $0.105 and stabilizes, bears will exit, and the trend will temporarily stop falling.
In summary: XPL clearly downward, short at rebound $0.098–$0.10, target $0.082→$0.07, strict stop loss at $0.105, absolutely do not bottom-fish.