The Solana price has fallen sharply in recent weeks, with a loss of nearly 40% in one month and over 54% since the peak in January. The trend still looks weak, and most traders are betting on further declines. But some whales are doing the opposite. They are opening aggressive long positions even though the market is still bearish.

This creates a clear divide. The trend is still pointing down, but some signals suggest that early reversal signs may be forming. The most important question now is simple. What exactly are these whales seeing?

Whale wallets with long positions are emerging even as Solana tests critical conditions for reversal.

The broader Solana trend remains bearish, but early reversal signs are starting to appear. The first signal comes from the relationship between price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI). RSI is a momentum indicator that measures whether selling pressure is strengthening or weakening.

Since November 21, the Solana price has continued to form lower lows. However, the RSI has started to form a higher low. This creates a bullish divergence, which often indicates that sellers are losing strength. This reversal signal has not yet been confirmed. For confirmation, two conditions must be met.

First, Solana's next daily candle must form above $77, which is the current low point for the last candle. If the next candle closes above this level, it will confirm that sellers failed to push the SOL price lower.

Secondly, the RSI must remain above 30, the previous low from November 21. If the RSI falls below 30, this will invalidate the bullish divergence and confirm ongoing weakness. As long as $77 holds and the RSI remains above 30 (the second criterion is the most important), the early reversal structure remains intact.

This explains why some whales are positioning themselves early.

A whale recently deposited $2 million in USDC and opened a 20× leveraged long position in Solana, despite the ongoing downtrend.

But the broader derivatives market still disagrees with this bullish view. Open positions increased from $1.93 billion to $1.98 billion, a rise of 2.6%. At the same time, the funding rate fell sharply from -0.005% to -0.032%, a decrease of 540% deeper into negative territory.

This shows that the market is largely betting on further decline. So why are experienced investors accumulating while most traders remain bearish? There must be something more behind the unconfirmed reversal signal.

Accumulation among long-term traders and institutional activity suggests hidden strength.

Long-term holders' behavior provides important clues. Holder Net Position Change, which shows whether long-term investors are buying or selling, reveals a significant increase in accumulation. Long-term holders increased net purchases from 786539 SOL to 972417 SOL in one day, a rise of 23.6%.

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This indicates that experienced investors are accumulating during weakness. Another signal comes from the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator. CMF measures whether large capital inflows are entering or exiting an asset using price and volume.

Although the Solana price has been weak, the CMF has started to rise. This shows that money is gradually beginning to flow into Solana. For larger capital to truly impact the SOL price positively, the price must first break above the ascending trend line and then above the zero line.

This accumulation becomes more important alongside the weekly VWAP, or volume-weighted average price. VWAP shows the average price weighted by volume and is often used as an indicator of institutional positioning. Solana recently reclaimed this level briefly, with a rise of 10%. The same happened early in January, and the price rose nearly 20%. Now the VWAP line is above $79, near today's trading price.

The VWAP recovery previously led the CMF and moved above the zero line. The current pattern suggests that institutional accumulation may be underway again. This perception may also explain why whales have started early long positions. But optimism does not come without risk.

Short-term traders and key price levels are now determining Solana's next major movement.

Short-term traders now pose the biggest risk to the upside. This is seen in HODL Waves, which measure how long investors hold their coins by grouping the supply into time bands.

The group holding between 1 week and 1 month increased their share of the supply from 5.10% to 7.18%, a growth of 40%. These short-term traders are more likely to sell quickly during volatility. This creates resistance during attempts at upward movement.

The Solana price is now at a critical turning point. If Solana stays above $77 and the RSI remains above 30 (from earlier), the bullish divergence is still intact. This could allow for a rise towards $91, which corresponds to a potential increase of 15%.

But if $77 is broken and the RSI falls below 30, the bullish setup will fall apart. Solana could then initially fall towards $68 and potentially towards $54, which would mean more than a 30% decline from current levels.

Therefore, the current level is so important. The broader market continues to bet against the Solana price, as seen in rising short positions and deep negative funding rates. But whales and long-term holders are already positioning themselves for a different outcome. The next candles and whether the RSI remains above 30 will determine who is right.