๐บ๐ธโ๐ฎ๐ฑโ๏ธ๐ฎ๐ท US Think Tank Warns: Gulf Oil Infrastructure at Risk
The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has warned that in the event of a direct attack on Iran, Tehran could respond by targeting oil infrastructure across the Persian Gulf region โ potentially without โred lines.โ
Here are the 4 disruption scenarios outlined:
1๏ธโฃ Disruption of Iranโs Oil Exports
If the U.S. or Israel attempts to block exports (e.g., via Kharg Island or tanker seizures):
โข Oil could jump $10โ$12 immediately
โข Iranโs retaliation risk increases
โข Regional allies face escalation exposure
2๏ธโฃ Closure of the Strait of Hormuz
Roughly 18 million barrels per day transit this chokepoint.
Iran could deploy:
โข Drones
โข Missiles
โข Naval mines
Impact:
โข Shipping insurers withdraw
โข Tanker traffic halts
โข Sharp oil spike
3๏ธโฃ Direct Attack on Iranโs Oil Facilities
If Iranโs production infrastructure is destroyed:
โข Oil could surge above $100
โข Long-term supply damage
โข High probability of severe retaliation
4๏ธโฃ Iran Targets Regional Oil Infrastructure (Most Likely Scenario)
Iran strikes oil fields and export terminals of Gulf states.
Potential outcome:
โข Oil above $130+
โข Regional gas exports halted
โข Severe global energy shock
Why Hormuz Is Nearly Impossible to Bypass
Alternative routes are extremely limited:
Saudi Arabia โ Less than half export rerouting capacity
United Arab Emirates โ Fujairah helps, but ~โ still exposed
Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar โ No viable alternatives
If Hormuz closes, exports from several producers effectively drop to zero.
โ ๏ธ Bottom Line:
Energy markets remain highly sensitive to Gulf escalation.
Any disruption would ripple into:
โข Inflation
โข Shipping costs
โข Equities
โข Crypto volatility
Geopolitics = Liquidity Shock Risk.
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