The US Federal Reserve will announce its decision on interest rates on September 17, 2025.
The strongest expectation: a reduction ✅ of 25 basis points.
The least likely expectation: a bold cut ❗ of 50 basis points.
The decision is directly related to labor market data and economic slowdown.
🔗 How does interest affect crypto?
1. 👊 The dollar's pressure on crypto
Higher interest = Stronger dollar 💵 → Usually negative pressure on Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Lower interest = Weaker dollar ➡️ Investors looking for alternatives like crypto 🚀.
2. 📈 Market liquidity
Lower interest = More liquidity 💧 → Money flowing into high-risk assets including cryptocurrencies.
Higher interest = Weaker liquidity → Money flowing out of crypto 😬.
3. 😎 Risk Appetite
The more investors feel that the Federal supports the economy through easing ➡️ the more demand for Bitcoin as digital gold 🪙.
📊 Possible scenarios
1️⃣ A 25 basis point cut (most likely)
📉 A slight decline in dollar strength.
📈 Gradual recovery in Bitcoin and Ethereum prices.
🤔 The market may react cautiously as the decision is expected in advance.
2️⃣ A 50 basis point cut (the surprise)
🚀 A strong push for crypto, we may see a quick jump in Bitcoin above resistance levels.
💡 Alternative coins (Altcoins) may see greater gains due to a sudden influx of liquidity.
3️⃣ Interest rate hold (least likely scenario)
❄️ Coolness in the crypto market.
📉 A quick drop in Bitcoin is likely due to traders' disappointment.
🪙 The most affected currencies
Bitcoin (BTC): Directly affected by dollar movement.
Ethereum (ETH): Benefits from liquidity but is sensitive to market sentiment.
Stablecoins (USDT, USDC): Maintain their value but demand changes with dollar movement.
Altcoins: Move more violently 🚀⬇️ depending on market liquidity.
📝 Summary
The Federal decision on September 17 🔔 will be a turning point:
A 25 basis point cut → Moderate support for crypto 👍.
A 50 basis point cut → Strong potential rise 🚀.
Interest rate hold → Market decline or stagnation ❄️.
👉 In short: The more monetary easing from the Federal, the more cryptocurrencies smile 😊🪙.