🇧🇷⚡ Brazil Positioning Itself as a Bitcoin Mining Hub
Brazil may have just opened a strategic window to attract global hashpower — not through subsidies, but by fixing a structural energy inefficiency.
On Feb. 20, the government reduced import duties to 0% for high-efficiency SHA256 Bitcoin mining machines (200+ TH/s, under 20 J/TH), with the incentive valid through January 2028.
Just days later, Engie signaled it’s considering installing Bitcoin miners at its 895 MW Assu Sol solar plant in northeast Brazil to monetize curtailed electricity.
⚡ The Core Opportunity: Renewable Curtailment
Brazil has curtailed ~32 TWh of wind energy (2021–2025), representing roughly R$6 billion in lost revenue.
As renewable penetration rises:
24% in 2024
34% peak in August 2025
Grid congestion and transmission bottlenecks are becoming structural, not temporary.
Bitcoin mining fits this gap because it provides:
• Flexible demand
• Rapid load adjustment
• On-site monetization of stranded energy
At current hashprice levels, a qualifying 200 TH/s miner breaks even near $0.071/kWh (~R$370/MWh) — meaning wholesale or curtailed power could make operations viable.
🧠 Why This Matters
The policy doesn’t remove all taxes, but:
It lowers upfront capex
Improves miner ROI
Reduces payback periods
Aligns incentives at the project level
If curtailment persists and utilities follow Engie’s model, Brazil could attract incremental hashrate without direct government subsidies.
⚠️ Risks to the Thesis
• Rising mining difficulty
• Transmission upgrades reducing curtailment
• Financing constraints
• Regulatory friction
• Tax incentive expiration in 2028
🧪 A Time-Bound Experiment
Brazil is effectively testing whether Bitcoin mining can serve as a market-based solution to stranded renewable energy.
The window is open — but not forever.
Execution speed will determine whether Brazil becomes a meaningful global mining hub or just a short-lived opportunity.
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