Analysts Predict Bitcoin Approaching Pain Point for Long-Term Investors

As Bitcoin markets struggle, the focus has turned to the behavior of investor groups, particularly long-term holders (LTH) who are less sensitive to short-term price changes. Currently, LTHs are seeing an average profit of around 74%, but this margin is steadily dropping as the price edges towards the LTH cost basis, currently about $38,900. Historically, each bear market has seen the price drop below this cost basis, triggering a final capitulation phase with losses of approximately 20%. Only after this phase do markets start to recover and enter a bullish phase. Glassnode's report confirmed a full transition into an "excess loss-realization regime," and Bitcoin experienced a minor rebound to $66,000. However, bearish sentiment still dominates, with another lower high forming and $60,000 remaining the support for lower lows.