Yes, there is evidence that a conversion (or flow) of other cryptocurrencies to $BNB is contributing to the recent price surge, which reached a new ATH above US$ 1,000 on September 18, 2025, representing a gain of about 76% in the year so far. However, this is not the only factor — the surge is driven by a combination of organic demand in the BNB Chain ecosystem, institutional purchases, token burns, and positive regulatory developments. I will explain step by step, based on recent market data and discussions on X (formerly Twitter).
1. Capital flow from other cryptos to $BNB: Yes, it is happening
- The trading volume of $BNB exploded by 22% in the last 24 hours (reaching over US$ 4 billion), indicating real buying pressure and not just speculative hype. This suggests that traders and investors are exchanging assets like BTC, ETH, and stablecoins for $BNB to capture the momentum.
- On X, there are reports that liquidity is "flowing to large-caps" like $BNB, marking the "start of phase 3 of altseason", where smaller alts are sold to buy the bigger ones. For example, recent posts mention direct swaps of ETH/SOL for BNB via DEXs like PancakeSwap, driven by market correlation — when $BNB rises, alts like Solana benefit indirectly, but the initial flow is to BNB.
- On-chain: Active addresses on the BNB Chain have doubled since April 2025 (from 1M to 2-3M daily), with transactions tripling to 10-14M per day. This includes conversions to pay fees (which burn BNB) and participation in DeFi/RWAs (tokenized real-world assets). Institutions like CEA Industries recently bought 38.888 BNB (US$ 33M), raising their treasury to 418.888 BNB — a clear signal of accumulation that pressures the price upward.
2. Other main reasons for the surge
- Token burns and scarcity: The BNB burn mechanism (via BEP-95) burns a portion of the fees from each block, making the supply scarcer as usage grows. The next burn (in a few weeks) is expected to destroy over 1M tokens (US$ 1B+), and the total supply has already dropped to ~144M, with a target of 100M. This is like a continuous "buyback", and posts on X highlight that "the more usage, the more BNB disappears".
- Ecosystem growth: The BNB Chain is attracting RWAs (like stablecoins, bonds, and tokenized gold), with TVL (total value locked) above US$ 14B and 100M+ weekly transactions. Partnerships like Binance's with Franklin Templeton (US$ 1.6T in assets) for blockchain investment products boosted the price to US$ 903 on September 10. Additionally, adoption in DeFi surpasses Base, Ethereum, and even Bitcoin in retention metrics (1.5M recurring users vs. 1.8M new).
- Regulatory and macro factors: Rumors that Binance is negotiating with the US DOJ to end compliance monitoring have increased confidence, with CZ updating his profile to "Binance" (from "ex-Binance"). This raised the mindshare by 78%. Overall, sentiment is bullish, with RSI at 73 (overbought, but strong momentum).
### 3. Predictions and risks
- For the rest of 2025, analysts see $BNB testing US$ 1,000-1,200, with averages around US$ 1,090, driven by a proposed ETF from VanEck and more institutional adoption. By 2030, projections range from US$ 1,800 to US$ 5,000+ if the blockchain becomes a hub for web3 and RWAs.
- Risks: Macro volatility (e.g., correction in BTC), leverage dumps, or regulatory delays can pull down (support at US$ 900-829). Some posts on X warn that KOLs avoid shilling $BNB to focus on shitcoins, using holders as "exit liquidity".
In summary, conversions to $BNB are a real part of the story (due to utility on the chain and low fees), but the pump is broader: strong ecosystem + scarcity + regulatory confidence. If you're considering entering, focus on fundamentals like TVL and burns — and DYOR, as crypto is volatile. What do you think, will you bet on the next 10x? 🚀