The theory of the energy price 'floor' of Bitcoin and the enhancement of the forecast considering external factors
Introduction
Since the emergence of Bitcoin in 2009, markets have been searching for a way to predict its long-term price. The theory stands out because it is based not on the emotions of traders, but on the fundamental physical economics of mining. The main thesis: the price of BTC never falls below the cost of its production on the most energy-efficient available ASIC at the average global electricity price.
This 'energy floor' defines the minimum possible price, below which Bitcoin physically cannot exist without compromising its security.
Five immutable rules of the Bitcoin network
1. Emission is limited to 21 million BTC.
2. The last bitcoin will be mined in 2140.
3. Average block time is 10 minutes.
4. Difficulty recalculation every ~2 weeks.
5. Halving every 4 years — the block reward is halved, doubling the mining cost.
Why mining sets the 'floor' for prices
Miners are the only suppliers of new emission.
Without miners, the network will not be able to confirm transactions and ensure decentralization.
Mining is a business with fixed costs, mainly on electricity.
Historical fact: since 2013, the price of BTC has never fallen below the mining cost for best-in-class ASICs at $0.06/kWh (weighted average global price based on hash rate distribution).
Net forecast on energy theory
Assumptions:
Until 2028 — energy efficiency 9 W/TH.
The network's difficulty growth until 2028 is 4% per month.
After 2028 — energy efficiency 7 W/TH, difficulty growth 2.5% per month.
Miner margins for peak price benchmark: ~15%.
Forecast:
Peak of the 5th cycle (IV quarter 2025): $180,000 – $200,000.
Bottom in 2026: $65,000 – $75,000.
Halving 2028 (April): cost price $150,000 – $160,000.
Peak of the 6th cycle (end of 2029 – beginning of 2030): $300,000 – $350,000.
Impact of external factors
Pure theory derives the minimum price and peak benchmarks without accounting for market drivers that can significantly raise the price above the calculated 'floor'. Let's consider key ones:
Government reserves in BTC
The USA already owns hundreds of thousands of confiscated BTC, and more countries are considering cryptocurrency as a strategic reserve.
If governments begin systematically accumulating BTC in reserves, this will sharply reduce supply in the market.
Launch and growth of spot Bitcoin ETFs
In the USA, Europe, and Asia, ETFs are already operating that accumulate physical BTC.
Inflows into ETFs create a constant liquidity deficit, as purchased coins are withdrawn from exchanges to storage.
Growth of the user base
Mass popularization of Bitcoin (micropayments, integration into payment systems, Lightning Network) increases demand in the retail segment.
With each cycle, the number of users grows exponentially.
Institutional demand
Pension funds, hedge funds, and corporations are increasingly using BTC as a long-term hedging tool.
Even a small redistribution of portfolios in favor of BTC creates a strong price impulse.
Forecast considering external factors
Adding these drivers to the model, we assume that the price at the peaks of cycles may be 30–50% higher than the theoretical calculation (historical effect from inflows of new capital).
Forecast:
Peak of the 5th cycle (Q4 2025): $240,000 – $280,000.
Bottom in 2026: $90,000 – $110,000.
Halving 2028 (April): market price $180,000 – $210,000 (against cost price $150–160 thousand).
Peak of the 6th cycle (end of 2029 – beginning of 2030): $420,000 – $500,000.
Conclusion
The theory forms a fundamental, engineering-economic 'floor' for the price of BTC, below which the asset has historically not fallen. However, when overlaying powerful external factors — government purchases, ETF growth, increasing user numbers — Bitcoin can demonstrate price levels significantly exceeding calculated bounds.
If the clean energy model gives us minimally guaranteed benchmarks, then the model of 'energy floor + external factors' shows what an optimistic yet realistic future scenario could be.
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