October 11, 2025, will be remembered as another significant day in the cryptocurrency world following '519', '312', and '94'. For most people, it was a heavy day—total liquidation amount reached 19.1 billion USD, affecting over 1.6 million accounts. Both the liquidation intensity and the scale of the liquidation far exceeded previous landmark markets, and also surpassed my earlier set threshold of '10 billion RMB liquidation in a bull market'.
This liquidation exhibited distinct characteristics: altcoin bulls and leveraged borrowers were the hardest hit, with some triggering liquidations with only 1.5-2 times leverage. Of the 19.1 billion USD in liquidation funds, over 16 billion came from long positions, which means that the 'bull camp' was almost completely wiped out.
Although I did not suffer systemic liquidation due to a lack of altcoin long positions, some of my previous arbitrage positions became unhedged due to objective reasons, resulting in a significant loss—this once again confirms that the risks of 'altcoins' are far from being as controllable as imagined. If your account also suffered losses in this market condition, there is no need to despair; the cryptocurrency space is never short of recovery opportunities, but risk control must always be the top priority. I often remind everyone 'do not arbitrarily increase leverage,' precisely because the volatility in the cryptocurrency space far exceeds that of traditional financial markets, and while leverage amplifies returns, it also exponentially increases risks.
In extreme market conditions, there are still opportunities; participating in market liquidation is the core direction, with WBETH, BNSOL, and USDE being the most typical performers:
- WBETH and BNSOL, as PoS staking wrapped tokens, are fixed in value to their corresponding native currencies (ETH, SOL). When both drop over 80%, decisive buyers reap enormous profits. From the candlestick chart and trading volume, it can be seen that there is an arbitrage space of tens of millions, equivalent to being able to buy ETH for $500 and SOL for over $60;
- USDE dropped to a minimum of $0.65, and stablecoins could be purchased at 60-70% off; currently, all three have returned to pegged prices.
Unfortunately, I was busy closing positions to hedge long orders at the time and missed this opportunity.
Backtracking market triggers: Trump's sudden tariffs caused a sharp decline in the US stock market, which then transmitted to the cryptocurrency market. However, the real reason for the 'cliff-like drop' was a lack of liquidity leading to a chain liquidation—large amounts of collateral were forcibly sold, and once the order book was breached, market makers were briefly unable to place orders, further exacerbating the price decline. Having been deep in the cryptocurrency space for many years, I have neither experienced such a drastic drop nor anticipated this extreme market condition, which also confirms that: market black swans cannot be predicted solely based on experience; only by maintaining respect can one show the most basic respect for the market.
Regarding future market conditions, it can be confirmed that at least for the next month, the focus will be on recovery, and short-term oversold rebounds cannot be ruled out. If planning to bottom-fish, one must prepare for long-term layouts and can also place orders in advance to take profits during rebounds. Based on experience, if there is no second crash tomorrow, there will likely be an oversold rebound, followed by another decline, entering a long recovery period; as for whether the market will be bullish or bearish in a month, it is still difficult to make a clear judgment.
