1. Macroeconomic risk aversion (bearish impact)
Overview:
Cryptocurrency markets experienced a global wave of risk aversion after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell tempered hopes for a rate cut in December, leading to a 9% drop in Bitcoin and liquidations totaling 61700000000 (Coinpaper). ETH liquidations totaled 169000000.
In clear:
investors liquidated their leveraged positions following a decrease in the likelihood of rate cuts, dropping from 60% to 40%, which reduced the available capital for speculative assets. The 0.6% drop in ETH was less pronounced than that of BTC (-0.85%), reflecting the greater sensitivity of altcoins to the macroeconomic context.
To watch closely:
the minutes from the FOMC meeting on November 20 (November 21) for clues on the Fed's policy trajectory in 2025.
2. Outflows from spot ETFs (bearish impact)
Overview:
Spot ETH ETFs recorded net outflows of 728 million dollars last week (Cointelegraph), reversing October's institutional inflows.
In plain terms:
institutions are reducing their exposure to ETH in light of weakening hopes for a recovery in the fourth quarter. With ETH trading 35% below its August high ($4,946), weak ETF demand removes an essential price stabilizer.
3. Technical outage (Mitigated impact)
Overview:
ETH has crossed the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level ($3,273) and is trading below all key moving averages (7-day simple moving average: $3,285). The RSI index at 27.8 indicates an extreme oversold situation.
In summary:
despite an oversold situation, the absence of bullish reversal signals suggests a persistent downside risk. A sustained break below $3,023 (2025 low) could trigger algorithmic selling.
Conclusion
The ETH pullback reflects macroeconomic difficulties, institutional profit-taking, and the breaking of technical supports. Although oversold, the recovery will depend on the Fed's clarity and a reversal of ETF flows.
Key point to watch: Can ETH hold above the psychologically critical threshold of $3,000 before Powell's speech on November 30?