After BTCโs sharp drop toward the $80,000 zone on Nov 21, Bitcoin has managed to hold above this level for several days, sparking debate on whether a short-term bottom may already be in.
๐ Is Bitcoin Forming a Local Bottom?
According to CryptoQuant analyst Carmelo Aleman, current on-chain data shows a market going through institutional redistribution, short-term structural weakness, and the early signs of a potential recovery phase โ all characteristics often seen near local bottoms.
๐ฆ Whale & Retail Behavior Still Bearish
Large holders are still offloading:
10,000+ BTC whales โ net sellers
1,000โ10,000 BTC cohorts โ also selling
Aleman notes that this reflects continued institutional profit-taking and risk reduction, increasing market supply.
Retail isnโt helping either:
0โ1 BTC wallets โ selling over the last 60 days
1โ10 BTC wallets โ also net distribution
This shows limited retail demand during the correction.
๐ฉ But Mid-Sized Players Are Accumulating
Some important cohorts are quietly buying:
100โ1,000 BTC wallets โ consistent accumulation
10โ100 BTC wallets โ slow, steady buying
These groups often act as early-cycle stabilizers, and their activity is helping the market cool off after an 11-day selling streak.
๐ก A Reversal Depends on One Key Group
Aleman highlights that a trend reversal becomes more convincing only if mid-sized buyers continue absorbing supply.
Whales in the 1,000โ10,000 BTC range are still distributing, making confirmation of a full trend shift uncertain for now.
๐ Hidden Bullish Divergence on the Weekly?
Analyst Ash Crypto adds another interesting signal:
BTC is showing a hidden bullish divergence on the weekly chart โ a setup that typically appears before strong continuation rallies.
This suggests:
Selling pressure is fading
Momentum is stabilizing
Weekly RSI may be ready to flip upward
A confirmed divergence could strengthen the argument that BTC is gearing up for a renewed upside move.
๐ Where BTC Stands Now
Bitcoin is trading around $87,150, still roughly 30% below its ATH of $126,000. The recent correction has wiped out gains across multiple time frames, including YTD, with BTC down nearly 9% in that window.
Is this the calm before Bitcoin attempts a move back toward the 90k region?
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