Bitcoin Lags Behind S&P 500 After 10 Years: Speculative Cash Shifts Direction
The year 2025 marks the first time in a decade that Bitcoin underperforms the S&P 500 index, amid a stock market boom driven by the AI wave and corporate investment cycle.
Theo Bloomberg, US stocks are expected to rise more than 16%, while Bitcoin is expected to decrease by about 3%, ending a stretch of superior performance that lasted since 2014.
Despite reaching a new peak above $126,000 earlier this year, the rapid rise quickly weakened as the market was impacted by forced liquidations, reduced retail buying power, and weakening market momentum, causing BTC to plummet nearly 30% to around 88,135 USD.
AI, gold, and silver are 'attracting capital', Bitcoin is losing its leading role.
Unlike the 2020–2021 period, this year's speculative capital is not concentrating on Bitcoin but is shifting heavily towards AI stocks, while gold and silver continuously challenge historical high marks.
Expert Matt Maley from Miller Tabak + Co states that Bitcoin has lost its position as the leading momentum asset in the market:
A portion of the capital that previously flowed into Bitcoin in prior cycles has now shifted to precious metals.
In addition, ETF cash flow into Bitcoin has stalled, announcements from institutions have decreased, and technical indicators — such as the series of higher lows being shortened — show that the strength of the upward trend has weakened, not just due to external impacts.
Bitcoin is down due to timing differences, not a long-term negative signal.
Some experts argue that a broader perspective is needed. Stephane Ouellette, CEO of FRNT Financial, believes that annual comparisons can be misleading, as Bitcoin has risen too strongly in the previous two years:
As of the beginning of October, Bitcoin still far surpasses the S&P 500 over a 12-month period. Stocks are only regaining what they lost, not that Bitcoin is collapsing.
Accordingly, the story for 2025 is not about Bitcoin's failure, but rather the rotation of speculative capital.
As AI, commodities, and stocks regain their appeal, Bitcoin is facing more competition than ever — and the direction of capital rotation in the coming time will determine the market's trajectory heading into 2026.
