🫵 Coinbase Premium and the December Story: Why Does the Bitcoin Market Always Follow the Behavior of Investors in the US?
Every year, December always brings a very special color to the Bitcoin market. And if you look closely at the Coinbase Premium Index – an index reflecting the price difference of BTC on Coinbase compared to other exchanges – you will clearly see that the behavior of investors in the US closely aligns with the price trend of $BTC.
1️⃣ The end of November to the beginning of December is a very bad signal
At the end of November to the beginning of December, Coinbase Premium fell sharply into the negative zone, meaning:
→ American investors are selling more than buying.
→ Selling pressure weighs heavily on the BTC price trend.
Interestingly, the drop in premium completely coincides with the decline of BTC, indicating that American liquidity is the main factor weakening the market.
2️⃣ Reasons why December often has selling pressure from America
If we look back at 8 years of data, we will see a very clear pattern:
December is usually not too positive.
Premium is often equal to 0 or negative.
The cause stems from the characteristic financial behavior of Americans:
Year-end rebalancing: funds take profits – close books – rebalance portfolios – celebrate.
Tax-loss harvesting: selling at a loss to reduce taxes.
In tough years like 2018 or 2022, deep negative premium reflects the real tension in the market.
In positive years like 2020 and 2023, positive premium returns, like a breeze pushing the market upward.
3️⃣ But in 2025 there will be an unusual development
After a sharp drop in early December, many thought selling pressure would last – but surprisingly, the premium bounced back to positive in just a few days.
This carries a lot of significance:
Selling pressure from America may have 'finished unloading'.
Liquidity is starting to come back to buy at low prices.
Pessimistic sentiment has decreased significantly.
Historically, such rapid reversals usually occur just before stable or recovering periods of BTC.
4️⃣ Why is Coinbase Premium so important?
Because Coinbase is the largest exchange for American investors.
Positive or negative premium tells us:
Are Americans looking to accumulate or unload?
Is USD liquidity flowing into or out of the market?
Is the sentiment of the American market supporting or challenging BTC prices?
Sometimes, the price chart may not clearly show anything – but premium says a lot about true behavior.
5️⃣ Which direction is BTC heading in December?
No one can predict 100% for sure, but one thing is very clear:
Bitcoin in the short term is mainly influenced by the actions of American investors.
If the premium continues to maintain positive → The market is likely to stabilize, even slightly rebound.
If the premium turns negative → Selling pressure from America may create more turbulence.
🎯 Conclusion
December is always a 'sensitive' and intense time for Bitcoin, mainly due to profit-taking – tax optimization – and portfolio adjustments from America.
But that is why Coinbase Premium becomes an extremely important indicator to understand market sentiment and the next direction of BTC.
If you want to know whether BTC is about to rise or fall, take a look at:
👉 What are Americans doing?
👉 Is the premium going up or down?
That is the real answer.
