🇺🇸 The US labor market is clearly cooling down
• The hiring plan has dropped to its lowest level since 2010, down 35% compared to 2024 → Businesses are losing confidence in growth.
• Prolonged high interest rates are increasing capital costs, forcing businesses to shift to defense – holding cash.
• Seasonal hiring in November is at a very low level despite being the peak shopping season → End-of-year purchasing power is suspected to be weak.
⚠️ Macroeconomic risks are gradually increasing
• Labor is the last pillar of the US economy – when this pillar weakens, the risk of a recession in 2025 increases significantly.
• Income is slowing down → weak spending → corporate profits are declining.
• The risk of bad debts and bankruptcies may increase in the coming quarters.
🏦 The FED is under pressure to pivot
• It is difficult to keep interest rates high for a longer period.
• The likelihood of interest rate cuts in 2025 is significantly increasing, even injecting liquidity if the economy deteriorates quickly.
📉 Market impact
• Short-term: cautious sentiment, the market is prone to strong fluctuations.
• Medium to long-term: if the FED loosens, stocks & crypto will benefit soon.
➡️ Conclusion:
The real economy is gradually worsening, but this could be a preparatory phase for a new cycle of cheap money.
Investors: short-term risk management – long-term opportunity preparation.