Bitcoin 'Supply Shock': Bull Market Signal or Liquidity Trap?
How to put it, the main core is one keyword: liquidity.
According to on-chain data queries, long-term holders have hoarded 75,000 BTC (3.2 billion USD) over 10 days, with 74% of the coins locked up. Sounds impressive, right? Reduced supply should mean rising prices?
But think about what another piece of data says?
Actual capital inflow plummeted by 88% over two months, from 38 billion USD to 4.7 billion USD. Miner income has dropped by 11%, yet mining difficulty has reached new highs. It's like a pool; the surface looks calm, but the water underneath is disappearing rapidly.
From another perspective, in a market dominated by institutions, it appears stable, but is actually fragile. OTC large transactions and ETFs have absorbed the supply, but once the balance is broken, the shallow spot liquidity can cause prices to crash instantly—just like that previous 'liquidity singularity' drop to 80,000 USD.
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The main trading logic here is: risk-reward ratio.
If you believe this is a 'mid-cycle reset' targeting 200,000 USD, then around 100,000 USD now represents a 2:1 risk-reward ratio. But if you think this is the 'beginning of a deep adjustment', where's your stop-loss? 90,000? 80,000?
But you have to ask yourself, can you afford to lose?
According to endgame thinking, Bitcoin's long-term value lies in the 'digital gold' narrative, but short-term volatility is normal. Don't be misled by the 'supply shock' story; it still comes back to recognizing liquidity.
Differences among people are inevitable; some are suited for long-term holding, while others are suited for swing trading. Find your rhythm, and don't follow the crowd. $BTC
