Market Quick Read: Three Alarms Behind the Surge of MERL
1. Nature of the Surge: "One-sided Performance" Under Low Liquidity
The short-term surge to the 0.44 area is a targeted pump in an environment of insufficient liquidity. Both the strength and sustainability of the rebound have diminished, and the key resistance zone has been repeatedly tested without establishing stability, indicating a weak structural state.
2. Core Suppression Factor: Unlocking Expectations Like a Sword Hanging Overhead
The token unlock in mid to late December is a clear timeline pressure. Even if the chips are not immediately sold off, the expectations themselves have continuously suppressed buying power. The rebound encounters early profit-taking pressure, and the upward space is firmly locked.
3. On-chain Movements Confirmed: Smart Money is on the Move
Recently, large positions have been observed transferring to exchange wallets, precisely timed before the unlocking window. This is a signal for a correction, as mainstream capital may be preparing for liquidity realization.
4. Strategic Perspective: Currently, emotions are driving the chase; one must not follow the emotional rush due to short-term lifts. On the contrary, the rebound can be seen as a risk accumulation area, providing a better price range for potential short positions in the future.
I personally have a clear bearish outlook and expect the bearish position to reach around 0.3! So for those looking to enter the market, it would be better to wait until 0.3 to discuss!
