Bitcoin price is under renewed pressure. BTC has fallen by about 4% in the past 24 hours and close to 10% in the past 30 days, as selling pressure increases across the crypto market. As traders debate whether we are in for a rally or further decline, a critical long-term level has now emerged that could determine how Bitcoin ends the year.
Both price structure and cycle analysis are converging around the same area. If Bitcoin fails to defend this before the year is out, the downside risk increases significantly.
A crucial Bitcoin price level in focus
Bitcoin is currently trading near its 2-year moving average (2Y SMA), which sits around $82,800. This level is not just a new support level. It is one of Bitcoin’s most important long-term cycle markers.
The 2Y SMA is calculated using daily closing prices, but interpreted based on monthly closings for cycle analysis. What matters is not the intraday movements, but where Bitcoin ends the month.
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The last time Bitcoin price fell below this SMA line, in mid-2022, it corrected another 51% before attempting a rally. That’s why December 31st is important.
When the December candlestick closes, the market gets a full month of data. That candlestick becomes the official signal that analysts use to determine whether Bitcoin is holding a long-term trend or is about to weaken further.
Historically, monthly closes below the 2Y SMA have marked longer bearish phases. Monthly defenses or recaptures above it have signaled cycle survival. Once the month closes, there may not be another chance.
Analysts who follow long-term Bitcoin cycles have also pointed to this level as a structural limit. The main message is simple: Bitcoin must stay above this area towards the end of the month to avoid generating a confirmed bearish signal.
Why this support level is under pressure now
The problem is not just technical. On-chain data shows growing pressure beneath the surface.
Long-term holders, defined as wallets that have held Bitcoin for more than 155 days, have increased their selling activity throughout December. According to net change data for long-term holders, net outflows have increased from approximately 116,000 BTC earlier in the month to nearly 269,000 BTC by December 15.
That's an increase in selling pressure of over 130% in just two weeks.
These are not short-term traders. This group typically only sells during periods of strong conviction or the need to reduce risk. Their continued selling increases downside pressure and makes it more difficult to defend key support levels.
When long-term holders sell during weakness, there is less room for error around critical price areas like the 2-year SMA.
Bitcoin price levels that define rise or fall
If Bitcoin fails to stay in the $82,800–$81,100 range by the end of December, the risk of further declines increases rapidly.
A confirmed break below this area would open the door for a move down towards $73,300, which is about 15% lower than current levels and forms the next major bearish forecast on the chart.
On the upside, Bitcoin needs to reclaim $88,200 to reduce the immediate pressure. A sustained rally above $94,500 will be needed to restore the bullish structure and turn the momentum back into buyers’ favor.
Until then, Bitcoin remains trapped between long-term cyclical support and increasing selling pressure.