We are standing at the fault line between new and old civilization cycles, and the unimaginable future price of gold represents a reset and recalibration of the monetary system.
Although gold is an anti-inflation tool, historically, real bull markets have occurred when the monetary system has failed, not during economic recessions. Therefore, the essence of gold is as a 'pressure gauge' for asset pricing and the monetary system.
So, it is not about how much the gold price will rise in the future that will be exaggerated, but rather the reset of the monetary system.
Previously, the rise in gold was the price of assets; in the future, the increase in gold prices will be a repricing of the monetary system itself.
Reviewing historical patterns verifies; the three gold price leaps in 1933/1971/2008 all corresponded to breaks in the monetary credit anchor: each collapse of the monetary system forced gold to be re-priced according to the 'new monetary coverage rate.'
In 1933, Roosevelt confiscated gold (forcing a 40% reduction in the dollar's gold content), and the gold price rose from $20 to $35 (a 40% devaluation of the dollar).
The collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1971 (decoupling of the dollar from gold) saw the gold price rise from $35 to $850 (a 70% devaluation of the dollar).
In 2008, QE ushered in the unpegged era of fiat currency (global central bank balance sheets expanded fourfold, gold price rose from $680 to $1,921).
Commonality: The rise in gold prices (10-30 times) far exceeds inflation rates (2-3 times), proving that its core driver is the revaluation of monetary credit rather than mere inflation resistance.
Therefore, inflation is only a superficial issue; the real crisis faced by the global economy in the future is: the interrelated structural challenges of aging population, pension bankruptcies, and uncontrollable sovereign debt, which collectively exacerbate the long-term risks of fiscal sustainability and the monetary system.
So, based on the current global debt scale, if gold were to cover global currency by 10–20% (very conservatively):
The reasonable range for gold is not $5,000 or $8,000, but $15,000–$60,000.
What you think is a bull market is actually the funeral of the old system.
Currently, Europe, the US, and Japan are all facing three issues:
1. A cliff-like decline in population structure (the working-age population has experienced negative growth for 20 consecutive years).
2. Pension liabilities are piling up (the future gap exceeds $70–100 trillion over the next 30 years).
3. The explosion of government debt (US debt surpasses $40 trillion, prolonged fiscal deficits in Europe and Japan) poses a fiscal black hole: either raise taxes or print money.
But the number of young people is decreasing, and they can't contribute much in taxes; they can only print money indefinitely. And indefinite printing can only lead to an increase in debt, which means that the dissolution speed of future fiat currency purchasing power will far exceed that of any past era.
The critical point of the current system:
Debt scale: Global sovereign debt reaches $100 trillion (IMF 2025), with annual interest costs accounting for 4.2% of GDP.
Collapse of solvency: US debt interest/GDP ratio exceeds 5.3% (surpassing the 1980s stagflation period), and Japan's national debt reaches 265% of GDP.
Core contradiction: When the growth rate of debt (>5%) continues to exceed the growth rate of the economy (aging population → pension black hole → fiscal blood loss → monetary overissue → credit collapse).
The catalytic effect of geopolitical conflicts: Take the Russia-Ukraine war as an example, the pension system of the conflict country will exhaust its reserves within 3 years (Poland 2024 data), corroborating that 'war is the first domino of a Ponzi pension scheme.'
The strategic logic behind the surge in central bank gold purchases: reconstructing the monetary anchor's 'Noah's Ark.'
Behavioral data corroborates the trend.
In 2023, global central bank gold purchases totaled 1136 tons (net buying for 14 consecutive years).
Emerging markets account for 78% (China, Russia, India, and Turkey as the first tier).
Three-layer strategic intent.
① Collateral reserves: Providing supranational credit guarantees for sovereign debt restructuring (refer to the role of gold in Greece's debt write-off in 2012).
② New monetary anchor experiments: BRICS nations promote a 'gold + commodity' dual-support settlement system (Saudi oil accepts RMB-gold swaps).
③ Payment system backup: Many countries establish offshore gold clearing systems (such as Turkey's ISTANBUL clearinghouse).
Zhang Yaoxi: The mathematical deduction of future gold price revaluation: the rationality of the $15,000-$60,000 range.
Core formula: Gold price = (Global monetizable debt × Gold coverage rate) / Total central bank gold reserves.
Parameter settings:
Global monetizable debt: $300 trillion (including government + corporate + hidden debt).
Gold coverage rate: 10%-20% (historically the lowest pegged ratio).
Central bank gold reserves: 35,000 tons (as of 2025).
Calculation result:
Conservative scenario (10% coverage): (300 trillion × 10%) ÷ 35,000 tons = $85,714 per ounce.
Crisis scenario (20% coverage): (300 trillion × 20%) ÷ 35,000 tons = $171,428 per ounce.
Note: Even assuming a 50% discount (liquidity discount/non-completely pegged), the price range remains $42,857-$85,714, far exceeding the market consensus expectation of $5,000-$8,000.
The threshold of civilization-level reconstruction: three paradigm shifts that are about to occur.
The ultimate stage of fiscal monetization.
The proportion of major central banks directly purchasing government bonds exceeds 40% (Japan has reached 78%), and fiat currency has completely lost its price discovery function.
The rise of regional currency unions.
Southeast Asia is 'gold-supported digital currency' (MAS Monetary Authority pilot), and Gulf countries are accelerating the replacement of dollar settlements with 'oil-gold dinar.'
The revolution of personal wealth storage mediums.
The migration from physical gold to digital gold certificates (such as Shanghai Gold Exchange iAu99.99) is compliant, with the annual growth rate of compliant gold ETF holdings at 35% (2025 WB data).
Conclusion: Understanding the practical significance of the reset logic.
When the revaluation of gold essentially switches the global credit system, traditional valuation models (such as inflation premiums, real interest rates) will completely fail.
Zhang Yaoxi suggests adopting the following action framework:
Position reconstruction: Increase the gold allocation ratio from '5% of asset portfolio' to '20%+ of monetary reserves.'
Form selection: Prioritize holding physical gold bars (LBMA certified) + central bank-level gold ETFs (such as GLDM).
Time window: Complete layout before large-scale sovereign debt restructuring agreements appear (expected cycle 2028-2032).
Historical experience shows that monetary resets have never been linear processes: after Nixon closed the gold window in August 1971, the gold price rose 22 times within six years.
In summary, the current crisis level far exceeds that of the past—we are standing on the fault line between new and old civilization cycles.
What will happen in the next decade is not a rise in gold prices, but gold being re-established as 'the underlying collateral of international credit.' Central banks buying gold like crazy is not to make money, but to prepare for the future:
Preparing collateral for potential sovereign debt restructuring is a reserve anchor for the next reconstruction of the global monetary system to back 'no counterparty risk assets' for international settlements. What you see is not the rise in gold prices, but central banks preparing a legitimate currency anchor for future reserves.
So what you underestimate is not gold, but the future world. You think the gold price rising from $2,000 to $5,000 is a bull market. But what may actually happen is: the old monetary system cannot be repaired → the new system must anchor gold → gold resets to $20,000 or more, which is merely the calibration process of 'connecting to the new system.'
This is not a prediction, but real mathematics. The fundamental reason you underestimate gold is simple: most people still think we live in a stable world of the past. But we are already standing at the threshold of the next civilization-level reconstruction.