According to public information, the token economics model of Solana (SOL) is centered around a dynamic inflation mechanism and regular unlocks. The following is an analysis of its economic model and the selling pressure from 2026 to 2027.
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📊 Overview of SOL token economics model
1. Inflation mechanism
· Initial design: The initial inflation rate is 8%, decreasing at a rate of 15% each year until it stabilizes at 1.5%.
· Current status: As of July 2025, the inflation rate is approximately 4.395%.
· New proposal (SIMD‑0411): A proposal in November 2025 suggests increasing the rate of inflation slowdown from -15% to -30%, aiming to reduce the inflation rate to 1.5% by early 2029, while also reducing the issuance of approximately 22.3 million SOL over the next six years.
2. Unlocking timetable
· March 1, 2025: A one-time unlocking of approximately 7.5 million SOL (worth about $1.4 billion).
· From then until 2028: A monthly linear unlocking of approximately 609,000 SOL (equivalent to about 7.308 million per year).
· Unlocking allocation: Typically used for distribution to the team, ecosystem, and community reserves.
3. Circulation and staking situation
· Circulating supply: Approximately 605 million SOL (data as of July 2025), accounting for 88% of the total supply.
· Staking ratio: Approximately 71% of circulating SOL is in active staking, far higher than Ethereum's 30%.
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📈 2026-2027 Selling pressure analysis
1. Direct selling pressure from linear unlocking
Year Monthly Unlocking Amount (SOL) Annual Unlocking Amount (SOL) Proportion of Circulating Supply (approx.)
2026 609000 7308000 1.21% (based on 605 million circulating supply)
2027 609000 7308000 1.21%
· These unlocked tokens usually belong to the team, ecological funds, etc. Some holders may choose to sell after unlocking, forming direct selling pressure.
· An annual unlocking amount of approximately 7.3 million SOL is about 1.2% of the circulating supply, which is not extremely high, but may amplify volatility when market sentiment is weak.
2. Indirect selling pressure from inflation issuance
Assuming the inflation rate decreases according to the original rules (if SIMD-0411 is not passed):
Year Expected Inflation Rate (approx.) Annual Inflation Issuance (SOL) Proportion of Circulation
2026 ~3.5% Approximately 21.2 million (605 million × 3.5%) 3.5%
2027 ~3.0% Approximately 18.2 million (605 million × 3.0%) 3.0%
· Inflation issuance is mainly distributed to validators and stakers through staking rewards. If stakers choose to sell rewards, it will create selling pressure; however, the current staking ratio of up to 71% indicates that most rewards may be restaked.
· If SIMD-0411 is passed: The issuance of 22.3 million SOL will be reduced over the next six years, equivalent to an annual reduction of approximately 3.7 million, which will directly reduce the selling pressure brought by inflation.
3. Other potential sources of selling pressure
· FTX bankruptcy assets: Approximately 600,000 SOL may still be locked, and if they enter the market later, it could bring short-term pressure.
· Large holders (whales): The top 20% of addresses hold a significant proportion of the circulating supply, and their concentrated selling may impact the market.
4. Comprehensive selling pressure assessment
Source of pressure 2026 (approx.) 2027 (approx.)
Linear unlocking 7.3 million (1.21%) 7.3 million (1.21%)
Inflation issuance (original rules) 21.2 million (3.5%) 18.2 million (3.0%)
Total (original rules) Approximately 28.5 million (4.71%) Approximately 25.5 million (4.21%)
If SIMD-0411 is passed, the reduction will be approximately 3.7 million/year, and total selling pressure will correspondingly decrease.
Note: The above calculations are based on the current circulating supply (605 million) and preset inflation rate. Actual data may be adjusted due to network upgrades or the passing of proposals.
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⚖️ Comprehensive assessment and market factors
· Supply reduction proposal (SIMD-0411) If passed, it will become an important positive factor, significantly reducing new supply in the coming years, thereby alleviating selling pressure.
· A high staking rate (71%) means that most inflation rewards are locked, and the actual amount flowing into the market may be lower than the theoretical issuance.
· Demand-side support: The continuous growth of the Solana ecosystem (such as DeFi, Mobile, institutional ETF inflows, etc.) may absorb some of the new supply, offsetting selling pressure.
Is there still a chance for SOL to reach 500?
📌 Summary
The token economic model of SOL is characterized by dynamic inflation and long-term linear unlocking. The selling pressure in 2026-2027 mainly comes from a linear unlocking of approximately 609,000 SOL per month and an inflation issuance of about 3-3.5%. If the SIMD-0411 proposal is passed, the issuance of 22.3 million SOL will be reduced over the next six years, significantly lowering selling pressure. Overall, the high staking rate and ecological demand of SOL are expected to hedge some of the selling pressure, but market sentiment and macroeconomic environment remain key variables.
The above analysis is based on public information and does not constitute investment advice. Data may change over time; please refer to the latest sources.