Friends in the crypto circle, wake up!
In the last week of 2025, BTC is set to stage the annual spectacle: On Friday (December 26), $2.36 billion in BTC options will expire, marking one of the largest scales in history (led by Deribit), directly accounting for more than half of the total open interest on the platform! This is not a trivial matter, but a **truly nuclear-level event** — CALLs piling up at 100k-120k (bulls celebrating), PUTs holding firm at 85k (bears in despair), with max pain precisely at 96k.
BTC is currently fluctuating around 88k (latest price about $88,500-89,000), just 8k away from max pain, but historically, during large expirations, prices tend to be drawn towards the max pain point — meaning the option market makers want most contracts to expire worthless, and prices obediently gravitate towards that point! This Friday to the weekend, liquidity is already as thin as paper (Christmas holiday), coupled with the massive expiration, a bloody storm is almost a certainty!
Why is it so explosive this time?
CALL vs PUT showdown: CALLs concentrated at 100k-120k (bullish bets on a Christmas rebound), PUTs heavily positioned at 85k (bears protecting against a crash). The put/call ratio is bearish (about 0.8-1.0), with bears dominating, but once CALL is triggered, the gamma squeeze (market makers forced to buy BTC for hedging) could directly push it past 100k!
The deadly attraction of Max Pain at 96k: When options expire, the market is often 'forced' towards max pain — during the last similar big expiration, BTC was directly pulled close to the pain point, causing a flash crash or short squeeze.
Whale game upgrade: Institutions/market makers are piling up positions on Deribit, with low liquidity during the holiday, any large order can trigger a chain reaction. In the past week, there have been 148M liquidations, and it may amplify tenfold on the 26th!
Macro background: Fed rate cut expectations cooling, institutional ETF outflows, global risk assets retreating, BTC is already fragile, and with the expiration, the weekend could become a slaughterhouse.
How to view the short-term trend?
Most likely: BTC will be pulled towards 96k (max pain), with severe fluctuations along the way, and the 85k-100k range is bound to see liquidations.
Most exciting: If CALL gamma squeeze is triggered, BTC could surge to 100k+, and the bulls will counterattack!
The worst: Bears won, dropping below 85k, starting a new round of bear market testing.
No matter what, don't leave positions overnight on the weekend! Holiday liquidity = market maker paradise = retail hell.
Conclusion:
This is not an ordinary expiration; this is the ultimate BOSS battle for BTC in 2025! Whales are playing chess while we watch the show. Be prepared with liquidation data, leverage, and stop-loss — or simply wait until after the 26th.
Is BTC digital gold? Let's see if we can survive this Friday first!