What you need to know: Galaxy Digital's (GLXY) research department, Galaxy Research, stated that the overlap of macroeconomic and market risks makes it exceptionally difficult to predict bitcoin in 2026. The company highlighted that options pricing and volatility trends indicate that bitcoin is maturing to become an investment more akin to a macro asset, rather than a high-growth trading asset. Galaxy maintains a long-term optimistic outlook for bitcoin, predicting it could reach $250,000 by the end of 2027.

Alex Thorn, head of corporate research at Galaxy Digital, stated that 2026 could be the most challenging year to predict bitcoin, even though the company maintains a long-term optimistic perspective.

In a publication dated December 21, Thorn said that the coming year is "too chaotic to predict," highlighting a mix of macroeconomic uncertainties, political risks, and uneven dynamics in the crypto market. Thorn explained that these comments are based on the Galaxy Research report published on December 18, "26 predictions for crypto, bitcoin, decentralized finance, and artificial intelligence in 2026," which outlined the company's expectations for the crypto market and institutional adoption.

At the time of writing, Thorn stated that the crypto market in general is deeply in a bear market, and bitcoin is struggling to regain a sustainable bullish momentum. He noted that the risk of decline remains until the asset clearly trades above the range of $100,000 to $105,000.

The derivatives market emphasizes this uncertainty. According to Thorn, bitcoin options pricing suggests that there are approximately equal probabilities of very different outcomes next year, with traders assigning similar chances for bitcoin's price to be close to $70,000 or $130,000 by mid-2026, and close to $50,000 or $250,000 by the end of the year.

coidesk $BTC