Tonight at 4 PM, the Bitcoin market will face an "ultimate liquidation" worth $23.7 billion.
This is not market analysis; this is a long-prepared script of bulls and bears, about to reach its final chapter.
Over 300,000 BTC options contracts are set to expire simultaneously, with a nominal value capable of shaking the entire market. History tells us that after such a scale of "delivery day," the market is never calm—either a violent trend begins or a complete bloodbath between bulls and bears.
But the vast majority only care about "up or down" and overlook a more critical question: tonight, who will decide the Bitcoin's "final settlement price"?
1. Your 'up or down prediction' may be based on a fragile lie
The core of options settlement is 'at what price to settle'. In the traditional world, this is determined by the exchange's closing price. But in the crypto market, prices can be manipulated.
Imagine this: in the crucial minutes before settlement, a large fund can influence the direction of billions of dollars in options payouts by manipulating prices with a small amount of capital on the thinnest liquidity exchanges.
This is not a conspiracy theory; it is a routine script during 'settlement week'. While you are still looking at candlesticks to guess the direction, the real battlefield is in the price discovery mechanism itself.
2. When massive options expire, 'reliable data' becomes the most scarce resource
This is exactly the purpose of decentralized oracles like @APRO-Oracle. It is not just a tool for quoting prices, but a price 'tamper-proof' infrastructure during such extreme moments.
By aggregating deep data from multiple mainstream exchanges, verifying on-chain fund flows, and using anti-manipulation aggregation algorithms, APRO attempts to provide a 'fair price' that is closest to the true state of the market.
In the face of $23.7 billion in interests, whoever controls the definition of the settlement price holds the key to wealth distribution.
3. After settlement: volatility will not end, it will only transfer
Even if tonight's settlement is completed, volatility will not stop. The closing or rolling over of large options positions will create lasting ripples, like a boulder thrown into water.
Smart money no longer just looks at prices but pays attention to changes in the implied volatility surface and the distribution of on-chain leverage. This data precisely requires protocols like @APRO-Oracle that can provide high-precision, verifiable market data to support it.
The future alpha belongs to those who can see the truth of the 'data layer'.
So tonight, when everyone is asking 'Will it go up or down', you should ask yourself a deeper question:
Is the price I see the true consensus of the market, or a manipulable illusion?
In this world where code executes settlements, the power to define 'truth' is the ultimate power.
