December 26 Market Analysis: The Last Carnival of Bears, Institutions Are 'Picking Up Corpses'

Hello, everyone! The market sentiment has been extremely volatile these past few days, but what I see is not destruction, but a power transition between old and new forces.

1⃣

The 'Counterintuitive' Signal of Data Many people are despairing at the negative premium on Coinbase and the outflow of ETF funds, believing that there will be further plummeting.

ETF continues to outflow (December 24 - $175M), Coinbase has had a negative premium for 11 consecutive days (-0.0689%), these 'bad news' are hanging there, yet the price just won’t drop, #BTC is stuck in the range of $86,500 - $88,800.

What does this indicate? The selling pressure has been completely absorbed! Nobody is willing to cut losses at this price level, as everyone who wanted to sell has already sold.

But please remember: a shrinking volume of bearish declines that does not break levels is a signal of bears exhausting.

Yesterday's $150 million order on Binance was definitely not from retail investors; this is solid evidence of the main force strongly accumulating in the $88,000 - $89,000 range.

2⃣

We are experiencing the beginning of a new cycle. The previous cycle was dominated by retail investors and old giant whales, now the chips are being handed over to institutions like BlackRock (cost around $90,000), MicroStrategy (average cost $74,972). Their goal is clear: to use $100,000 as the base to push towards $200,000+. Institutions are not here to be the bag holders; they are here to control the market.

Every intense washout at the bottom is to force the uncertain retail investors to give up their blood-stained chips.

What’s the outlook?

Short-term: (1-2 weeks): Continue to oscillate sideways, with prices fluctuating between $87,000 - $91,500. This is the final washout phase, making you feel hopeless and forcing you to give up your chips.

Medium-term: (Mid-January): After breaking $91,500, a rapid surge to test $100,000 will occur. This wave will be very fierce because there are too many bears.

Space: A current 30% correction has already factored in most of the bad news for #BTC, while altcoins have fallen into 'golden pits.'

The biggest opportunities in the market always arise when the majority of people are in panic, doubt, and despair. Now is that time.

Risk Warning:

If it breaks below the $84,500 weekly support, a reassessment is needed, but the probability is low.

The above represents only personal views and does not constitute any investment advice.