At the beginning of the new year, everything is renewed.

This past year, cryptocurrency did not outperform the US stock market and the A-shares, but island friends should not lose confidence; this blue ocean is still the paradise for alpha.

Today, let's review the ETH options data trends from the past year, understanding the gains and losses clearly.

Let’s take a look at the four indicators: IV, RV, skew, and VRP, mainly comparing the 1M and 3M periods, representing the near-term and long-term respectively.

The trend of IV fully reflects the characteristics of volatility and mean reversion; when it rises too much, it falls, and when it falls too much, it rises. Moreover, the near-term breakthroughs and breakdowns relative to the long-term will create a trend continuation for a certain period, making the volatility IV trend very tradeable.

The trend of RV, on the other hand, has a relatively larger span, and the mean reversion of IV is not as obvious. The movement of the larger trend also shows the characteristic of gradually converging volatility.

The trend of skew somewhat aligns with the price movement of the spot market. Both show a trend of a quick rise in the short term followed by a long-term decline.

The trend of VRP selected a 7D cycle, with a larger overall area of negative values and smaller positive values, indirectly reflecting the difficult situation for sellers. Over the past year, the short-term fluctuations of RV have exceeded the magnitude of IV.

Last year, the bull came and then went far away.

In the present new year, options traders may face a more severe IV trend.

Wishing everyone to be a friend of time, transitioning from trading price to trading time and trading volatility, truly becoming a mature options trader!

Happy new year!