For many years, we have been accustomed to the idea that Bitcoin follows a cycle every 4 years...

Halfing → Strong Rise → Correction → Bear Market → And we go back to the beginning.

This idea has worked for us more than once, and many people make their investment decisions based on it.

But after 2025, the question becomes very logical:

Is this course still available? Or has the market changed?

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What happened in 2025 is different

What happened is that Bitcoin ended 2025 lower than its starting price,

And this is the first time it happens in a year after the halving.

Historically:

• Any year after the halving was rising

• This time... the scenario has broken

And this made many people say:

The four-year cycle has ended.

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So why do people see it this way?

Simply put, the market is not like before:

1. Entering institutions

Now you have funds, ETFs, huge money...

These people do not invest based on 'the cycle is coming.'

2. Economic factors have become stronger

Interest rates, inflation, liquidity, central bank decisions

All of this has a direct impact on the price of Bitcoin.

3. The market has grown and matured

Bitcoin is not small like before

The movement has become calmer, slower, and less impulsive.

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Does this mean that the halving is useless?

No... not in that sense.

The halving is still important,

But not alone.

In an opinion that says that:

• The impact became slower

• The cycle itself may be longer

• Instead of 4 years... it could be 5 or more

It hasn't disappeared... its shape has changed.

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Could the peak just be delayed?

In another logical scenario:

The peak has not come yet

And the people were waiting for it in 2025

It could happen in 2026

Not the cancellation of the cycle...

But extending it.

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The summary

The four-year cycle:

❌ Not a sacred rule

❌ And not a guarantee of profit

But:

✅ Still one of the factors

✅ But it must be placed alongside the economy, liquidity, and risks

Today, the right question is not:

What year are we in the cycle?

But:

What about liquidity?

Are the risks high or low?

Where are interest rates going?

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Final note

Anyone who invests relying on just one model,

Puts itself at risk.

Cycles help

But you can't guarantee anything.

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