Why is BTC not rallying? Is it going to drop?
To put it simply: it's not illogical; it's just that the key variables this January are too packed, and large funds are holding back big moves waiting for answers!
I will clarify these critical time points in January for you, and once you understand them, you won't panic:
1️⃣ January 1st Bitcoin Spot ETF
This is a milestone event, not just a short-term positive! It means that BTC has officially stepped into the door of traditional finance, with funding sources shifting from retail sentiment speculation to serious institutional allocations.
Don't expect a surge just because good news has landed; in the short term, there's a high probability of first digesting before choosing a direction—this is a major event that changes BTC's positioning, and it can't be resolved with just one candlestick.
2️⃣ January 9th, double test day
On one side is the nomination of the new chair of the Federal Reserve, and on the other side is the U.S. unemployment rate data for December.
On this day, we watch two core issues: Is the Federal Reserve's attitude dovish or not? Is the U.S. economy really cooling down?
Dovish + weak data = collective rebound of risk assets; hawkish or too strong data = cryptocurrency prices are directly suppressed.
3️⃣ January 13th, CPI inflation data (crucial)
This is the emotional watershed for the entire month!
CPI cooling leads to heightened expectations for rate cuts; if CPI rebounds, all risk assets will face pressure.
Remember: BTC is currently not concerned with the little things in the crypto world, but rather with the expectations of U.S. dollar liquidity!
4️⃣ January 15th, South Korea's central bank interest rate decision
Many people overlook this, but it has a significant impact—related to the liquidity of the Korean won trading pairs and the activity of Asian funds; the amplification effect of sentiment is fully realized.
When Asian funds warm up, the sentiment for altcoins can be directly boosted.
5️⃣ January 22nd, Bank of Japan interest rate decision
Japan is the last major central bank to adopt ultra-loose policies globally; once the policy shifts, yen arbitrage funds will flow back, causing a short-term impact on global risk assets.
6️⃣ January 27th, FOMC meeting
This is the day when the ultimate answer will be revealed! It depends on whether the Federal Reserve will clarify the rate cut rhythm and provide dovish guidance. The general direction for the end of January will basically be set on this day.
There's also a pending bomb: national-level crypto reserves
If this is confirmed, BTC will upgrade from an ordinary asset to a national-level reserve tool—this is the hard logic for a long-term bull market, which is completely different from short-term speculative themes.
Lastly, let me say: January is not a month for sentiment speculation; it is a key month for setting the direction for the entire year!
The current fluctuations are because large funds are waiting for the final macro answer.
The ETF defines the positioning of BTC, CPI and FOMC define liquidity, and central banks of various countries define risk appetite—understanding these three things will tell you how to play it.
